Morning Call | IPCA de janeiro e varejo nos EUA no radar

XP Research 10 de fevereiro de 2026   Morning Call IPCA de janeiro e varejo nos EUA no radar     Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify   Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de segunda-feira em alta de 1,8%, aos 186.241 pontos, em linha com o desempenho positivo dos mercados globais (S&P 500, +1,4%; Nasdaq, +0,8%). No cenário doméstico, o dia foi marcado por uma agenda econômica mais esvaziada. O principal destaque positivo foi Magazine Luiza (MGLU3, +6,0%), beneficiada pelo fechamento da curva de juros. Na ponta negativa, as construtoras Cyrela (CYRE3, -1,1%) e Cury (CURY3, -0,9%) recuaram, após terem registrado forte valorização na semana anterior. Para o pregão de terça-feira, o foco da agenda doméstica será a divulgação do IPCA de janeiro, enquanto nos Estados Unidos serão divulgados os dados de vendas no varejo de dezembro. Pela temporada de resultados do 4T25, teremos os balanços de Inter, Suzano e TIM. Já pela temporada internacional, os principais resultados incluem AstraZeneca, Barclays e Ford.   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros dos EUA fecharam a segunda‑feira em leve queda nos vértices curtos, no aguardo da divulgação do payroll (quarta) e do CPI (sexta), ambos adiados pelo shutdown. A vitória do partido LDP nas eleições da véspera no Japão também pressionou os JGBs (curva de títulos públicos japoneses) e influenciou as curvas globais. A T‑Note de 2 anos terminou a 3,49% (-1 bp), a de 10 anos a 4,20% (0 bp) e o T‑Bond de 30 anos a 4,85% (0 bp). No Brasil, os juros futuros recuaram acompanhando o maior apetite por emergentes e a fraqueza do dólar, com ajustes mais intensos nos vértices longos. O DI jan/27 caiu para 13,34% (-2 bps), o DI jan/29 para 12,68% (-7 bps) e o DI jan/31 para 13,09% (-10 bps).   Mercados globais Nesta terça-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam próximos da estabilidade (S&P 500: +0,1%; Nasdaq 100: 0,0%). O movimento ocorre após a segunda sessão consecutiva de alta nos mercados americanos, com o Dow avançando 0,04% e registrando novo recorde tanto intradiário quanto de fechamento. O S&P 500 subiu cerca de 0,5%, enquanto o Nasdaq Composite avançou 0,9%, impulsionado pela continuidade da recuperação das ações de tecnologia após a forte correção observada na semana passada. Nesta semana, o foco segue nos dados macroeconômicos, com vendas no varejo sendo divulgadas hoje, o relatório de emprego amanhã e o CPI na sexta-feira, além da temporada de resultados, com Coca-Cola reportando antes da abertura do mercado. Na Europa, as bolsas operam em leve alta (Stoxx 600: +0,1%). As ações da Philips sobem cerca de 9% após a divulgação de resultados anuais que mostraram melhora no lucro e aceleração no crescimento de pedidos, apesar de um guidance mais conservador para 2026. No setor de energia, a BP recua mais de 4% depois de anunciar a suspensão do programa de recompra de ações para fortalecer o balanço, além de reportar lucro abaixo do esperado. Já o setor de luxo apresenta forte desempenho, com a Kering saltando cerca de 13% após surpreender positivamente nas vendas e sinalizar retorno ao crescimento em 2026. Na China, os mercados fecharam em alta (CSI 300: +0,1%; HSI: +0,6%), assim como no restante da Ásia, com destaque para o Japão, onde o Nikkei 225 atingiu uma nova máxima histórica, refletindo o forte apetite por risco na região. O movimento acompanha o bom desempenho dos índices americanos na véspera e reforça a rotação global em direção a ativos de risco, especialmente em mercados desenvolvidos.  IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a segunda-feira em queda de 0,09%, em um dia marcado por uma agenda econômica mais esvaziada, pressionado sobretudo pelos Fundos Multiestratégia e pelos Fundos de Tijolo, que recuaram 0,23% e 0,20%, respectivamente. O desempenho dos Fundos de Tijolo foi puxado principalmente pelos Fundos de Lajes Corporativas, que registraram queda de 0,29%. Ainda assim, os Fundos de Shoppings (-0,14%) e os Fundos de Ativos Logísticos (-0,18%) também encerraram o pregão no campo negativo. Já os Fundos de Papel (+0,03%) e os Fundos de Fundos (+0,01%) ficaram praticamente estáveis. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se KNIP11 (+1,3%), TEPP11 (+1,1%) e LIFE11 (+1,0%). No campo negativo, as principais baixas foram WHGR11 (-3,0%), DEVA11 (-2,4%) e RCRB11 (-2,0%).   Economia   As autoridades financeiras da China orientaram os bancos do país a conter novas compras de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA. A participação chinesa em Treasuries caiu pela metade desde o pico de US$ 1,32 trilhão no fim de 2013 para cerca de US$ 682,6 bilhões, o menor nível desde 2008. Na agenda doméstica, temos a divulgação do IPCA de janeiro. Esperamos um aumento de 0,33% contra dezembro, em linha com o consenso (0,32%), levando a inflação acumulada de 12 meses para 4,44%. O destaque será para o componente de administrados, que deve registrar uma queda de 2,2% nos preços de energia elétrica devido a bandeira verde, parcialmente compensada pelo aumento nos preços na gasolina (ICMS) e reajustes de transporte público. Na agenda internacional, destaque para vendas no varejo e dados de exportação e importação referentes a dezembro nos EUA. Na China, será divulgado a inflação ao consumidor e ao produtor de janeiro.       O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. Atenções voltadas ao IPCA de janeiro   COMMODITIES:     1. Papel e Celulose: Medidas de câmbio relativamente baratas apesar do momentum fraco do setor EMPRESAS:     1. BTG (BPAC): Resultados consistentes após um forte ciclo de expansão do ROE 2. São Martinho (SMTO3) | Revisão dos resultados do 3T26: resultados mistos e FCF abaixo do esperado 3. Marcopolo (POMO4): Férias coletivas impulsionando uma produção de janeiro mais fraca que o habitual 4. Motiva (MOTV3): Resultados do 4T25 da Motiva 5. Ferrovias & Hidrovias: Tracker Mensal de Ferrovias 6. Cury | Um forte início de ano para a Cury em 2026 7. Principais notícias dos setores RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa ESTRATÉGIA:    1. XP Short Scout: Monitor de short selling no Brasil – 09/02/2026    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1. Natura (NATU3) adota biometano, em parceria com a Ultragaz, para descarbonizar operações | Café com ESG, 10/02   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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