Morning Call | Dados de emprego no Brasil e produção industrial nos EUA no radar

XP Research   16 de setembro de 2025 Morning Call Dados de emprego no Brasil e produção industrial nos EUA no radar       Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify   Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou a segunda-feira em alta de 0,9%, aos 143.547 pontos. O IBC-Br de julho veio abaixo das expectativas, reforçando as perspectivas de desaceleração econômica ao longo do segundo semestre e favorecendo papéis cíclicos em meio ao fechamento da curva de juros. Além disso, o dólar fechou em novas mínimas, aos R$ 5,32 (-0,6%). Entre as ações, Magazine Luiza (MGLU3, +7,4%) subiu repercutindo o fechamento da curva de juros. Na ponta oposta, RD Saúde (RADL3, -3,9%) recuou em movimento técnico. Nesta terça-feira, as atenções se voltam para a divulgação da taxa de desemprego de agosto no Brasil e dos dados de produção industrial e vendas no varejo nos EUA. O foco da semana permanece na "superquarta", quando serão anunciadas as decisões de política monetária tanto no Brasil quanto nos EUA.   Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros encerraram a sessão de segunda-feira com fechamento da curva. Nos Estados Unidos, os títulos soberanos reagiram à expectativa de corte de juros pelo Fed, com possível redução de 0,25 ponto percentual. No Brasil, a curva de juros acompanhou o movimento externo, enquanto os dados de atividade econômica e inflação reforçaram o fechamento das taxas, em meio às expectativas para a decisão do Copom nesta quarta-feira. Os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram em 3,54% (-2,32bps vs. pregão anterior), enquanto os de dez anos em 4,04% (-1,96bps). Na curva local, o DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,9% (- 0,3bp vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 14% (- 2,4bps); DI jan/29 em 13,16% (- 4,4bps); DI jan/31 em 13,4% (- 4,6bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta terça-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em alta (S&P 500: +0,2%; Nasdaq 100: +0,3%) após o índice S&P 500 fechar acima de 6.600 pontos pela primeira vez. O otimismo foi impulsionado por ganhos de mais de 4% em Alphabet e 3% em Tesla, além de avanço de 5% da Oracle, após notícias de que a companhia faz parte do consórcio que permitiria a continuidade do TikTok nos EUA. Os investidores aguardam o início da reunião do Federal Reserve, com decisão de política monetária prevista para quarta-feira. Na Europa, o mercado opera em queda (Stoxx 600: -0,3%), com a maioria dos setores recuando. O índice bancário Euro Stoxx Banks cai -0,6%, pressionado por Commerzbank, Caixabank e Bank of Ireland, em meio à expectativa pela decisão de juros do Fed. Na China, os mercados não abriram nesta terça-feira, mas o foco segue nas negociações comerciais realizadas em Madri. Autoridades dos EUA e da China anunciaram um "acordo-quadro" sobre a desincorporação do TikTok, com os termos comerciais já definidos, segundo o secretário do Tesouro, Scott Bessent. Os presidentes Donald Trump e Xi Jinping devem conversar na sexta-feira para discutir os detalhes finais.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou o pregão de segunda-feira em alta de 0,35%. O movimento foi impulsionado, principalmente, pelo desempenho dos fundos de tijolo, que apresentaram avanço médio de 0,48% na sessão, enquanto os fundos de papel registraram ganho médio de 0,07%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se CACR11 (4,3%), JSAF11 (3,0%) e TRBL11 (2,7%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram HCTR11 (-1,6%), RBRX11 (-1,4%) e KNIP11 (-1,2%).   Economia   Scott Bessent, secretário do Tesouro dos EUA, afirmou que não colocarão tarifas sobre a China devido às compras de petróleo russo, a menos que a Europa taxe a China e a Índia antes. Em relação ao Fed (banco central dos EUA), um tribunal de apelações decidiu a favor da diretora Lisa Cook contra sua demissão, solicitada por Donald Trump. Paralelamente, o Senado aprovou a escolha de Stephen Miran para ocupar um cargo no Fed em 2026. No Brasil, o Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central (IBC-Br) – proxy mensal do PIB – caiu 0,5% em julho, exatamente em linha com nossas expectativas (XP: -0,5%; Mercado: -0,3%). Foi a terceira queda consecutiva, com recuo em todos os setores. Antecipamos uma alta moderada do PIB de 0,3% no 3º trimestre. Para 2025, mantivemos nossa projeção de crescimento em 2,2%. Na agenda internacional, os Estados Unidos devem divulgar as vendas no varejo e produção industrial. No Brasil, o destaque do dia é a divulgação da taxa de desemprego da Pnad contínua, que esperamos que caia para 5,7%.   O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. O índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central (IBC-Br), proxy do PIB, tem 3° recuo seguido EMPRESAS: 1.Natura (NATU3): Avon CARD vendida; faltam duas ainda 2. Natura (NATU3): Data Expert: Monitor de preços de beleza #23   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1.De olho na demanda por IA, Google anuncia inauguração de novo data center no Reino Unido | Café com ESG, 16/09   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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