Morning Call | Tarifas de Trump, IPCA-15 e Caged em destaque na semana

XP Research 23 de fevereiro de 2026   Morning Call Tarifas de Trump, IPCA-15 e Caged em destaque na semana     Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify     Ibovespa  O Ibovespa encerrou a semana passada em alta de 2,2% em reais e 2,8% em dólares, fechando em 190.534 pontos, em uma semana mais curta e de menor liquidez devido ao Carnaval. Axia Energia (AXIA3, +4,7%; AXIA6, +7,9%) foi o principal destaque positivo da semana após anunciar proposta de migração para o Novo Mercado, a ser votada em Assembleia Geral Extraordinária no dia 1º de abril. Na ponta negativa, Pão de Açúcar (PCAR3, -11,9%) apresentou desempenho inferior, refletindo um movimento técnico e possivelmente maior cautela do mercado em relação aos resultados da companhia..   Renda Fixa   No comparativo semanal, os juros futuros dos EUA avançaram após a Suprema Corte derrubar as tarifas impostas pelo governo Donald Trump, movimento que pressionou as Treasuries, levando a T Note de 2 anos a 3,48% (+8 bps vs. semana anterior), a T Note de 10 anos a 4,08% (+3 bps) e o T Bond de 30 anos a 4,72% (+2 bps). No Brasil, o alívio externo impulsionado pela decisão gerou uma queima de prêmios ao longo de toda a curva, com a NTN B 2030 recuando para 7,67% a.a. ( 5 bps), enquanto os DIs acompanharam o movimento, fechando em 13,24% no jan/27 ( 7 bps), 12,60% no jan/29 ( 7 bps) e 13,05% no jan/31 ( 3 bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta segunda-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em queda (S&P 500: -0,3%; Nasdaq 100: -0,4%) após o presidente Donald Trump anunciar que elevará as tarifas globais para 15%, acima dos 10% previamente indicados, poucos dias depois de a Suprema Corte ter invalidado parte relevante de sua política comercial. Na sexta-feira, os índices haviam fechado em alta, após decisão da Suprema Corte, mas a nova medida reacendeu incertezas sobre inflação e crescimento global. No radar da semana, destaque para o discurso do Estado da União na terça-feira e os resultados da Nvidia na quarta-feira. Na Europa, os mercados iniciam a semana em queda (Stoxx 600: -0,3%), reagindo à nova rodada de tarifas anunciada por Trump. Entre os destaques corporativos, a JD Sports sobe quase 4% após anunciar recompra de ações de 200 milhões de libras, enquanto a Johnson Matthey despenca 12% após reduzir o valor de venda de sua divisão Catalyst Technologies. No campo macroeconômico, saem o índice Ifo da Alemanha e dados de inflação da Itália. Os mercado na China e no Japão permaneceram fechados devido a feriado. No restante da Ásia, os mercados fecharam mistos. O anúncio das novas tarifas elevou incertezas, mas apesar da decisão da Suprema Corte limitar parte do uso do IEEPA, o arcabouço tarifário mais amplo segue intacto.   IFIX   Com a semana encurtada pelo feriado de Carnaval, o Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) avançou 0,42%, impulsionado principalmente pelos fundos de tijolo (+0,63%). Nesse grupo, destacaram-se os fundos de shoppings (+1,09%), de lajes corporativas (+0,79%) e os logísticos (+0,50%), estes últimos favorecidos pelo forte desempenho do TRBL11, que apresentou a maior alta da semana (+10,8%). Embora os FIIs de papel costumem ser pressionados no início do ano devido à sazonalidade mais baixa da inflação, que tende a reduzir as distribuições nos primeiros meses, o segmento apresentou alta de 0,25% na semana, impulsionado especialmente pelos FIIs de perfil mais high grade e middle risk. Entre os destaques negativos ficaram os FIIs de papel de perfil mais high yield, como URPR11, além de SNCI11 e HSAF11, que figuraram entre as cinco maiores baixas da semana. Por fim, os fundos híbridos e os fundos multiestratégia ficaram praticamente estáveis, com variações de -0,05% e -0,02%, respectivamente.    Economia   Nos Estados Unidos, a Suprema Corte decidiu que Donald Trump violou a legislação federal ao impor tarifas emergenciais sem autorização do Congresso, invalidando parte das tarifas de importação impostas pelo presidente. Após a decisão, Trump recorreu à Lei de Comércio de 1974 e instaurou uma nova tarifa global de 15% por até 150 dias, aumentando a incerteza sobre a política comercial. Na agenda internacional desta semana, conheceremos o índice de preços ao produtor e uma série de sondagens regionais de atividade econômica dos Estados Unidos. Na China, o banco central decidirá pelas taxas de empréstimos de 1 ano e de 5-10 anos. Por fim, na Europa, a leitura final da inflação ao consumidor de janeiro será conhecida. No Brasil, o protagonismo ficará com o IPCA-15 de fevereiro. Do lado da atividade econômica, teremos a geração de emprego formal (relatório Caged) de janeiro. Além disso, o banco central divulgará as estatísticas de crédito, fiscais e do setor externo – também de janeiro.    O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!     ECONOMIA:     1. Após derrota na Suprema Corte, Trump impõe nova tarifa global de 15%   EMPRESAS:   1. Banco Mercantil (BMEB4): Um case estrutural ligado ao aumento da longevidade   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias 2. ETFs: confira as principais notícias dos índices e movimentos setoriais   ESG:    1. STF deve voltar a julgar lei que obriga as seguradoras a adquirirem créditos de carbono | Café com ESG, 23/02     Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. 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