Morning Call | Prévia do PIB e resultados em foco

XP Research 19 de fevereiro de 2026 Morning Call Prévia do PIB e resultados em foco      Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify       Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou a quarta-feira em queda de 0,2%, aos 186.016 pontos, registrando o terceiro pregão consecutivo de baixa. A sessão foi marcada por menor liquidez e horário reduzido devido à Quarta-feira de Cinzas. No cenário macro doméstico, o Boletim Focus revisou para baixo a projeção do IPCA de 2026 pela sexta semana seguida, movimento que contribuiu para o fechamento da curva de juros. Porém, o principal fator de pressão sobre o índice foi o desempenho negativo de Vale (VALE3, -3,6%), refletindo a queda de seus ADRs na véspera, após o recuo dos contratos futuros de minério de ferro negociados em Singapura. O mercado chinês, principal referência para a commodity, segue fechado em função do feriado do Ano Novo Lunar. Por outro lado, Raízen (RAIZ4, +6,3%) foi destaque positivo, em movimento de recuperação após acumular perdas relevantes na semana anterior. Para o pregão de quinta-feira, o destaque da agenda doméstica será a divulgação do IBC-Br referente a dezembro. No cenário internacional, pela temporada de resultados do 4T25, os principais destaques ficam por conta dos balanços de John Deere, Newmont e Walmart.   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros dos EUA fecharam a quarta‑feira (18) em alta, após a ata do Fed indicar que o ritmo para possíveis cortes pode ser mais lento diante da inflação ainda resistente. O leilão fraco de T‑bonds de 20 anos ajudou a sustentar o movimento. A T‑Note de 2 anos avançou para 3,46% (+6 bps), a de 10 anos para 4,09% (+4 bps) e o T‑Bond de 30 anos para 4,71% (+1 bp). No Brasil, a curva teve leve fechamento em sessão de baixa liquidez após o feriado. O DI jan/27 terminou estável em 13,315%, o DI jan/29 recuou para 12,66% (‑2 bps) e o DI jan/31 caiu para 13,08% (‑1,5 bp).   Mercados globais   Nesta quinta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em queda (S&P 500: -0,3%; Nasdaq 100: -0,4%), após uma sessão positiva impulsionados por altas nas "Magnificent Seven", com Nvidia (+1,6%) e Amazon (+1,8%) entre os destaques. O movimento ocorre enquanto investidores aguardam os resultados trimestrais do Walmart, previstos para antes da abertura, além de monitorarem dados de pedidos semanais de seguro-desemprego e o índice de preços de gastos com consumo (PCE), que será divulgado na sexta-feira. O petróleo subiu mais de 4% após declarações do vice-presidente JD Vance sobre o Irã, aumentando a tensão geopolítica.   Na Europa, as bolsas operam em queda (Stoxx 600: -0,5%), com investidores avaliando uma nova rodada de resultados trimestrais. As ações da Airbus recuam 5,4% após projeções de entregas ligeiramente abaixo do esperado para 2026. Já a Renault avança cerca de 2%, apesar de registrar prejuízo líquido de 10,9 bilhões de euros em 2025, impactado por efeito extraordinário ligado à Nissan.   Na Ásia, os mercados de Hong Kong e da China continental permanecem fechados devido ao feriado do Ano Novo Lunar. Na região, o destaque foi a Coreia do Sul, com o Kospi avançando mais de 3% e fechando em máxima histórica, enquanto o Kosdaq subiu quase 5%. No Japão, o Nikkei 225 ganhou 0,6% e o Topix avançou 1,2%. O movimento acompanha os ganhos recentes nas bolsas americanas e a retomada gradual das negociações na Ásia após o feriado.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a quarta-feira praticamente estável, com desempenho de -0,01%. Com isso, acumula retração de 0,22% no mês, corrigindo o movimento de alta que vinha se intensificando nos meses anteriores. No campo negativo, o desempenho do dia foi pressionado sobretudo pelos Fundos Híbridos e pelos Fundos de Fundos, que recuaram 0,13% e 0,27%, respectivamente. Os Fundos Tijolo registraram desempenho positivo de 0,09%, puxados pelos Fundos de Ativos Logísticos, que desempenharam em alta de 0,19%. Além disso, os Fundos de Papel também obtiveram desempenho negativo, encerrando com queda de 0,10%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se RCRB11 (+1,8%), BTAL11 (+1,7%) e RBFM11 (+1,5%). Do outro lado, as principais baixas foram SNCI11 (-1,8%), RECR11 (-1,5%) e BLMG11 (-1,4%).    Economia   O Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central dos Estados Unidos) publicou ontem a ata de sua última reunião de política monetária. Pelo lado dovish (acomodatício), alguns membros observaram que a desinflação parece continuar no grupo de serviços subjacentes, e que o crescimento mais forte da produtividade, associado a desenvolvimentos tecnológicos ou regulatórios, pode exercer pressão baixista sobre a inflação geral. Pelo lado hawkish (restritivo), a maioria dos membros alertou que a convergência para a meta de inflação de 2% pode ser mais lenta e irregular do que o antecipado. Ademais, a maioria apontou que as leituras recentes de dados sugerem estabilização das condições do mercado de trabalho após um período de arrefecimento gradual. Tudo considerado, a ata praticamente não alterou as expectativas para os juros de referência dos Estados Unidos, que pressupõem o próximo corte em junho e 2–3 reduções ao longo de 2026.     No Brasil, o Boletim Focus trouxe poucas mudanças. A mediana das projeções para o IPCA de 2026 recuou pela sexta semana consecutiva, de 3,97% para 3,95%. O mercado continua a prever inflação de 3,80% em 2027 e 3,50% em 2028. Em relação à política monetária, a mediana das previsões para a taxa Selic seguiu em 12,25% no final deste ano e 10,50% no final do ano que vem. Hoje, destaque para a divulgação do Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central (IBC-Br), uma proxy mensal do PIB. Estimamos recuo de 0,5% em dezembro comparado com novembro, enquanto o mercado espera queda de 0,4%. Apesar disso, acreditamos que o IBC-Br registrará crescimento de 0,2% no 4º trimestre e de 2,3% em 2025.      O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   EMPRESAS:   1. Varejo: Entenda como o possível fim da escala 6x1 pode impactar as varejistas ECONOMIA:     1. Ata do Fed traz sinais mistos e não altera perspectivas para a política monetária no curto prazo; no Brasil, Boletim Focus mostra recuo na projeção de IPCA 2026 pela sexta semana consecutiva   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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