Morning Call | Inflação nos EUA e balanços do 4º tri: o que move os mercados hoje

XP Research 13 de fevereiro de 2026 Morning Call Inflação nos EUA e balanços do 4º tri: o que move os mercados hoje     Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify   Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de quinta-feira em queda de 1,0%, aos 187.766 pontos. O índice acompanhou o desempenho negativo dos mercados globais (S&P 500, -1,6%; Nasdaq, -2,0%), além de também ter sido pressionado pelas ações das petroleiras, principalmente Petrobras (PETR3, -3,1%; PETR4, -2,6%). O destaque positivo do dia foi Assaí (ASAI3, +5,1%), repercutindo a divulgação dos resultados do 4T25 da companhia (veja aqui mais detalhes). Na ponta negativa, Braskem (BRKM5, -11,3%) recuou após algumas notícias afirmarem que a empresa teria sido a responsável por um calote de R$ 3,6 bilhões que uma única companhia deu ao Banco do Brasil. Após o fechamento de mercado, no entanto, a companhia negou a veracidade dessa informação. Para o pregão desta sexta-feira, destaque para a divulgação dos dados de inflação ao consumidor (CPI) referentes a janeiro nos EUA, enquanto no Brasil teremos a Pesquisa Mensal do Comércio de dezembro. Pela temporada de resultados do 4T25, o principal balanço será o de Usiminas (USIM5).   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros dos EUA fecharam a quinta‑feira (12) em queda, em meio à cautela global com temas de IA e à expectativa pelo CPI de janeiro. O movimento foi reforçado pelo leilão de US$ 25 bilhões em T‑bonds de 30 anos, que registrou demanda acima da média. A T‑Note de 2 anos caiu para 3,46% (‑5 bps), a de 10 anos para 4,10% (‑8 bps) e o T‑Bond de 30 anos para 4,73% (‑8 bps). No Brasil, os juros futuros terminaram praticamente estáveis, com leve recuo na ponta longa após a queda do setor de serviços em dezembro e o alívio nos Treasuries, mas sem força na parte da tarde devido ao ambiente global. O DI jan/27 fechou a 13,33% (‑0,5 bp), o DI jan/29 permaneceu em 12,71% (0 bp) e o DI jan/31 recuou a 13,15% (‑1 bp).   Mercados globais   Nesta sexta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam estáveis (S&P 500: 0,0%; Nasdaq 100: 0,0%), com investidores à espera do CPI de janeiro. Na véspera, o mercado teve forte correção: S&P 500 -1,6%, Nasdaq -2% e Dow -1,3%, pressionados por temores de disrupção via inteligência artificial que atingiram setores como real estate, transporte e software. Apple caiu 5% (maior queda diária desde abril de 2025) e Cisco despencou 12% após guidance fraco. No pós-mercado, Applied Materials saltou 13% com resultados fortes, Airbnb subiu 4% e Pinterest caiu 17%. No acumulado da semana, os principais índices caminham para perdas superiores a 1%. Na Europa, os mercados operam em leve queda (Stoxx 600: -0,1%), refletindo o sell-off de tecnologia nos EUA. A Safran lidera ganhos (+7,3%) após lucro líquido subir 3,5% em 2025, com receita avançando 15%. Já o setor imobiliário recua, com Land Securities e British Land caindo 2,5%, em linha com o mau humor visto no setor nos EUA. No mercado de metais, futuros de alumínio recuam após relatos de que Trump pode suavizar tarifas sobre aço e alumínio. Na China, os mercados fecharam em queda (CSI 300: -1,3%; HSI: -1,7%), também impactados pelas preocupações de disrupção via inteligência artificial nos EUA. Por outro lado, destaque estrutural no país vem da retomada do M&A além das fronteiras chinesas. O volume de aquisições externas de empresas da Grande China somou quase US$ 12 bilhões em janeiro, o maior nível para o mês desde 2017. O movimento é apoiado por maior confiança doméstica, fortalecimento de balanços e valorização do mercado acionário.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a quinta-feira em queda de 0,10%, em um dia marcado por uma agenda econômica mais esvaziada. Com isso, acumula retração de 0,73% no mês, devolvendo parte dos ganhos recentes após o forte movimento de valorização observado nos últimos meses. O desempenho do dia foi pressionado sobretudo pelos Fundos Multiestratégia e pelos Fundos Híbridos, que recuaram 0,48% e 0,38%, respectivamente. Os Fundos de Tijolo também registraram desempenho negativo (-0,17%), puxados principalmente pelos Fundos de Lajes Corporativas, que recuaram 0,36%. Já os Fundos de Papel e os Fundos de Fundos foram os destaques positivos da sessão, encerrando com alta de 0,07% e 0,60%, respectivamente. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se CACR11 (+2,1%), LIFE11 (+1,8%) e HFOF11 (+1,8%). No campo negativo, as principais baixas foram CCME11 (-3,5%), ICRI11 (-2,3%) e BROF11 (-2,1%).   Economia   O presidente Donald Trump afirmou que os Estados Unidos precisam alcançar um acordo com o Irã, alertando para consequências "traumáticas" caso as negociações fracassem, mas demonstrou otimismo de que um entendimento possa ser alcançado dentro de um mês. No Brasil, a receita real do setor de serviços recuou 0,4% em dezembro ante novembro, levemente abaixo das expectativas. Acreditamos que o setor de serviços deve retomar a trajetória de crescimento nos próximos meses, em linha com a desaceleração da inflação, o aumento da renda disponível e a queda gradual das taxas de juros. Assim, projetamos que a receita total de serviços cresça 3,0% em 2026, após o avanço de 2,8% em 2025. Na agenda doméstica, destaque para a divulgação da Pesquisa Mensal de Comércio (PMC) de dezembro, para a qual projetamos um leve recuo de 0,1% no varejo restrito em relação a novembro — ainda que, na comparação interanual, a leitura indique alta de 2,9% — enquanto o varejo ampliado deve registrar queda de 1,0%, mas manter avanço de 3,1% frente a dezembro de 2024. No cenário internacional, as atenções se voltam para o índice de preços ao consumidor (CPI) dos Estados Unidos, que, segundo o consenso de mercado, deve apresentar um leve arrefecimento.     O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. Inflação nos EUA e vendas do varejo no Brasil são o destaque do dia   COMMODITIES:     1. Mineração e Siderurgia: Sinais de demanda fraca e altos estoques aumentam preocupações com minério de ferro   EMPRESAS:     1. Raízen (RAIZ4) | Revisão de resultados do 3T26: perdida em ajustes 2. Jalles (JALL3) | Revisão dos resultados do 3Q26: resultados fracos compensados pela estratégia de hedge 3. AmBev (ABEV3) | Revisão dos resultados do 4T25: fechamento negativo do ano com um resultado morno 4. Vale (VALE3): Quarto trimestre sólido em meio a um momentum positivo 5. Petrobras (PETR4)| Prévia 4T25: Aproveitando a maré alta – Aumento do preço-alvo 6. Natura (NATU3): Monitor de preços de beleza #26 7. TOTVS (TOTS3): LYNN – Infraestrutura de IA: Aprofundando a Vantagem Competitiva   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1. Trump revoga conclusão científica que servia de base para a regulamentação climática | Café com ESG, 13/02 2. Transição energética global em foco: Investimento recorde, mas crescimento desacelera    Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. 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