Morning Call | Bolsas em alta; PIB e inflação nos EUA no radar

XP Research 20 de fevereiro de 2026 Morning Call Bolsas em alta; PIB e inflação nos EUA no radar     Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify     Ibovespa   O Ibovespa terminou a quinta-feira em alta de 1,3%, aos 188.534 pontos. No Brasil, o IBC-Br de dezembro caiu 0,18% no mês, mas veio acima do consenso de mercado, reforçando uma leitura de atividade resiliente no fim de 2025. Entre as commodities, o petróleo subiu mais de 2%, o que contribuiu para um desempenho positivo das petroleiras, como Petrobras (PETR3, +2,6%; PETR4, +1,7%) e Prio (PRIO3, +2,1%). O destaque positivo do dia foi Axia Energia (AXIA3, +4,4%; AXIA6, +6,9%), após a companhia apresentar proposta de migração ao Novo Mercado. Na ponta negativa, Pão de Açucar (PCAR3, -9,8%) recuou, em movimento técnico. Para hoje, o foco do mercado está nos PMIs de manufatura e serviços nos EUA e na Zona do Euro. Além disso, o de deflator PCE, indicador de inflação preferido do Federal Reserve, também será divulgado.   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros dos EUA fecharam a quinta‑feira (19) em leve alta nos vértices curtos, em meio à cautela do Fed diante da inflação persistente e à alta do petróleo, enquanto os vértices mais longos recuaram. O leilão de TIPS de 30 anos registrou boa demanda. A T‑Note de 2 anos subiu para 3,47% (+1 bp), a T‑Note de 10 anos recuou para 4,07% (‑2 bps) e o T‑Bond de 30 anos caiu para 4,70% (‑1 bp). No Brasil, a curva de juros avançou nos vencimentos longos após o leilão robusto de prefixados do Tesouro, acentuando a inclinação. O movimento já aparecia pela manhã com o IBC‑Br de dezembro, que veio mais forte que o esperado ao recuar 0,2% (vs. XPe ‑0,5%; Mercado ‑0,4%). O DI jan/27 terminou estável em 13,30%, o DI jan/29 subiu para 12,67% (+4 bps) e o DI jan/31 avançou para 13,12% (+7,5 bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta sexta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em alta (S&P 500: +0,2%; Nasdaq 100: +0,3%), com investidores aguardando a divulgação do PIB do quarto trimestre e do índice PCE, além da possível decisão da Suprema Corte sobre a legalidade das tarifas impostas por Donald Trump. Na sessão anterior, o S&P 500 e o Nasdaq caíram cerca de 0,3%, pressionados por tensões com o Irã após Trump indicar que decidirá em até 10 dias sobre eventual ação militar. Na semana, o S&P acumula alta de 0,4% e o Nasdaq sobe 0,6%. Na Europa, as bolsas operam em alta (Stoxx 600: +0,6%), enquanto investidores acompanham balanços e dados econômicos. A Anglo American reportou EBITDA ajustado de US$ 6,4 bilhões em 2025, mas registrou prejuízo líquido de US$ 3,7 bilhões devido a impairment na unidade De Beers. No Reino Unido, as vendas no varejo subiram 1,8% em janeiro, acima de dezembro (+0,4%), enquanto as finanças públicas mostraram superávit de 30,4 bilhões de libras no mês. Na China continental os mercados permanecem fechados devido ao Ano Novo Lunar. No restante da Ásia, as bolsas fecharam majoritariamente em queda, refletindo as tensões no Oriente Médio. O Kospi sul-coreano foi exceção, renovando máxima histórica pelo segundo dia consecutivo (+2,31%), impulsionado por ganhos em SK Hynix (+6,15%) e Hanwha Aerospace (+8,09%).   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a quinta‑feira em alta de 0,07%, impulsionado sobretudo pelos Fundos de Shoppings, que avançaram 0,74%. Com isso, os Fundos de Tijolo também registraram desempenho positivo (+0,18%). Além da boa performance do segmento de Shoppings, os Fundos de Ativos Logísticos também apresentaram resultado positivo, com alta de 0,10%, puxados principalmente pelo TRBL11, que subiu 11,1%. O fundo informou ao mercado o fechamento de um contrato de locação com a Shopee para o imóvel localizado em Contagem/MG, reduzindo a vacância do portfólio para 3,3% e zerando a vacância do ativo. Segundo os gestores, o contrato deve gerar impacto positivo estimado de R$ 0,26/cota no resultado mensal do fundo. No campo negativo, o destaque foi para os Fundos de Multiestratégia, que recuaram 0,38%, seguidos pelos Fundos de Recebíveis, que registraram queda de 0,09% — movimento que pode ter sido influenciado pela abertura da curva de juros, impulsionada, entre outros fatores, pelo resultado do IBC‑Br de dezembro, que veio mais forte do que o esperado. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram‑se TRBL11 (+11,1%), KORE11 (+2,9%) e BPML11 (+2,3%). No lado negativo, as principais quedas foram PVBI11 (-1,7%), RPRI11 (-1,5%) e RBRY11 (-1,3%).    Economia   Com declarações de Trump, as tensões aumentaram no Irã, levando ao aumento do preço do petróleo – precificado pelo Brent, como referência. O Presidente norte-americano quer um acordo nuclear com Teerã nos próximos dias, caso contrário, prometeu "consequências". No Brasil, O Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central (IBC-Br) – proxy mensal do PIB – recuou 0,2% em dezembro comparado a novembro. Em 2025, o indicador cresceu 2,45% No cenário internacional, os destaques serão a divulgação do PIB do 4º trimestre dos Estados Unidos e o índice de preços PCE de janeiro, o principal indicador de inflação do país. No Brasil, sem agenda de indicadores relevantes.    O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!     ECONOMIA:     1. Trump eleva tensões com Irã EMPRESAS:   1. Assaí (ASAI3): Incorporando o novo guidance de aberturas e as iniciativas de monetização de créditos 2. Embraer (EMBJ3): Um perfil desenquadrado de riscos com opcionalidades estratégicas   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias 2. ETFs: confira as principais notícias dos índices e movimentos setoriais ESG:    1. Etanol e biodiesel podem atender 43% da demanda de transportes em 2055, diz MME | Café com ESG, 20/02   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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