Morning Call | Dados de emprego nos EUA e inflação no Brasil no radar

XP Research 9 de janeiro de 2026   Morning Call Dados de emprego nos EUA e inflação no Brasil no radar Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify     Ibovespa O Ibovespa encerrou a quinta-feira em alta de 0,6%, aos 162.936 pontos, impulsionado principalmente pelo setor de Óleo & Gás, com destaque para a Petrobras (PETR3, +2,5%; PETR4, +1,2%). O desempenho foi favorecido pela valorização dos preços do petróleo, em meio ao aumento das tensões políticas no Irã, diante da intensificação das manifestações populares no país. Nesse contexto, Brava (BRAV3, +5,7%) figurou como o principal destaque positivo do dia, uma vez que o papel apresenta a maior alavancagem aos preços do petróleo dentro do Ibovespa. Na ponta negativa, Hapvida (HAPV3, -4,8%) recuou, devolvendo parte dos ganhos acumulados nos dois pregões anteriores (+13,3%). Para o pregão desta sexta-feira, todos os olhos se voltam para a divulgação do relatório de empregos dos EUA (Nonfarm Payroll) referente a dezembro. No cenário doméstico, o destaque será a publicação dos dados do IPCA de dezembro.   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros encerraram esta quinta-feira com movimentos contido. A produção industrial de novembro veio neutra e não trouxe direcionadores, enquanto o leilão inaugural da NTN-F 2037 pelo Tesouro gerou alívio temporário na inclinação da curva, sem alterar a percepção de que fatores domésticos seguirão predominando. DI jan/27 fechou em 13,725% (+4,4bps); DI jan/28 em 13,015% (+3,5bps); DI jan/29 em 13,010% (+1,6bps); DI jan/31 em 13,320% (-2,6bps). Nos EUA, as Treasuries abriram levemente, corrigindo parte da queda da véspera após pedidos de auxílio-desemprego baixos, reforçando cautela sobre o ritmo de cortes pelo Fed. T-note 2y em 3,49% (+2bps); T-note 10y em 4,19% (+4bps); T-bond 30y em 4,85% (+3bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta sexta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em leve alta (S&P 500: +0,1%; Nasdaq 100: +0,1%). O movimento ocorre antes de dois catalisadores relevantes ao longo do dia: a divulgação do payroll de dezembro e uma possível decisão da Suprema Corte dos Estados Unidos sobre a legalidade das tarifas impostas pelo presidente Donald Trump. Apesar da cautela, os índices caminham para fechar a semana em alta. Na Europa, as bolsas operam em alta nesta sexta-feira (Stoxx 600: +0,4%), com ganhos disseminados entre setores e destaque para o setor de defesa, que avança pelo quinto dia consecutivo, impulsionado pela retórica do presidente Trump em favor de um aumento de 50% nos gastos militares dos EUA e pelas tensões envolvendo a Groenlândia. No noticiário corporativo, as ações da Glencore sobem cerca de 8% após a confirmação de conversas preliminares com a Rio Tinto sobre uma possível fusão, enquanto a Rolls-Royce renovou máximas apoiada pelo bom momento do setor aeroespacial. Na China, os mercados fecharam em leve alta (CSI 300: +0,5%; HSI: +0,3%), com o avanço sustentado por ações do setor de defesa e pela leitura de inflação de dezembro, que mostrou alta anual de 0,8%, em linha com as expectativas. No Japão, o Nikkei subiu cerca de 1,6% e o Topix avançou 0,9%, apoiados por resultados corporativos positivos, como o da Fast Retailing, enquanto a Coreia do Sul também encerrou em alta, com forte valorização de empresas ligadas à defesa.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a sessão de quinta-feira com leve alta de 0,04%, em um dia de agenda doméstica sem grandes eventos diretamente relacionados aos FIIs. No radar dos investidores, permanece a expectativa pela divulgação do IPCA, prevista para sexta-feira. Os fundos de papel avançaram 0,09%, enquanto os fundos de tijolo registraram alta marginal de 0,01%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se SNFF11 (+4,0%), BROF11 (+2,1%) e HABT11 (+1,5%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram TOPP11 (-1,3%), VGIP11 (-1,1%) e MCCI11 (-1,0%).  Economia   No Brasil, a produção industrial ficou estável entre outubro e novembro, em linha com as expectativas. O indicador contraiu 1,2% em relação ao mesmo mês de 2024. A indústria de transformação continua estagnada, enquanto a indústria extrativa mostra tendência de alta. Acreditamos que o quadro de baixo dinamismo da indústria persistirá no curto prazo. Por um lado, o aperto das condições monetárias e restrições de oferta continuam a pesar sobre o setor. Por outro lado, o mercado de trabalho aquecido e impulsos fiscais devem evitar um ciclo recessivo.   Hoje, destaque para a publicação do IPCA de dezembro. Estimamos que o índice geral tenha subido 0,32% em comparação com novembro, um pouco abaixo do consenso de mercado (0,33%). Essa projeção é compatível com inflação de 4,25% em 2025, consideravelmente abaixo da expectativa ao redor de 6,0% há um ano. A apreciação da taxa de câmbio, a produção agrícola recorde e a postura firme do Copom contribuíram bastante para a queda da inflação ao longo do ano passado. Projetamos alta de 4,0% para o IPCA de 2026.   Nos Estados Unidos, a produtividade do trabalho acelerou de 4,1% no 2º trimestre para 4,9% no 3º trimestre de 2025 (em termos anualizados), o resultado mais forte desde meados de 2023. Esses resultados corroboram a avaliação de impacto expressivo dos investimentos em inteligência artificial e, dessa maneira, o cenário que combina resiliência da atividade econômica geral e enfraquecimento do mercado de trabalho. Hoje, atenções voltadas para a publicação do principal relatório de emprego americano (Nonfarm Payroll). O mercado espera criação líquida de 60 mil ocupações em dezembro, após adição de 64 mil em novembro. A mediana das projeções indica recuo na taxa de desemprego, de 4,6% (o nível mais alto em mais de quatro anos) para 4,5%.    Na China, o índice de preços ao consumidor ficou estável em 2025, a leitura mais baixa desde 2009 e muito aquém da meta de "alta ao redor de 2%" estabelecida pelo governo. Por sua vez, o índice de preços ao produtor mostrou deflação de 2,6% no último ano. A demanda interna permanece fraca e muitos setores apresentam excesso de capacidade instalada.     O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!     ECONOMIA:   1.IPCA de 2025 e relatório de emprego dos EUA no centro das atenções   EMPRESAS: 1.AmBev (ABEV3) | Indicadores fracos do setor; 2.Randoncorp (RAPT4) & Frasle Mobility (FRAS3): Desenvolvimentos recentes ajudando a mitigar os riscos da tese de investimentos da Randon; 3.GPA (PCAR3): Rafael Russowsky renuncia ao cargo de CFO.   RENDA FIXA:  1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa   ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:  1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG: 1.ANP libera operação da primeira usina nacional de etanol de trigo | Café com ESG, 09/01   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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