Morning Call | Alta da Bolsa brasileira e dados de emprego em destaque

XP Research 29 de janeiro de 2026 Morning Call Alta da Bolsa brasileira e dados de emprego em destaque    Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify       Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de quarta-feira com mais uma alta expressiva de 1,5%, aos 184.691 pontos, renovando máximas históricas. O dia foi marcado pelas decisões de política monetária nos EUA e no Brasil. O Federal Reserve manteve a taxa de juros inalterada, enquanto o Copom também optou pela manutenção, sinalizando, contudo, o início do ciclo de cortes já na reunião de março. Ainda assim, o principal vetor de sustentação da Bolsa segue sendo o forte fluxo estrangeiro, que já acumula R$ 20,2 bilhões no ano, equivalente a cerca de 80% do total registrado ao longo de 2025. O principal destaque positivo do dia foi Raízen (RAIZ4, +20,0%), beneficiada pelo fechamento da curva de juros e por notícias relacionadas a um possível aumento de capital da companhia. Na ponta negativa, Embraer (EMBR3, -3,5%) apresentou queda, apesar da divulgação de dados operacionais sólidos referentes ao 4T25. Para o pregão de quinta-feira, pela temporada internacional de resultados do 4T25, os principais destaques ficam por conta dos balanços de Apple, Blackstone, Caterpillar, Mastercard e Visa.   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros encerraram a quarta-feira (28) em alta nos Estados Unidos, com destaque para a decisão do Fed de manter os juros no intervalo entre 3,50% e 3,75%, interrompendo uma sequência de três cortes consecutivos. A decisão era amplamente esperada pelo mercado, mas contou com dois votos favoráveis a uma redução de 0,25 p.p., incluindo o de Christopher Waller, um dos nomes cotados para assumir a presidência do Fed. Nesse contexto, as Treasuries avançaram: os títulos de 2 anos fecharam em 3,58% (+1 bp); os de 10 anos, em 4,25% (+2 bps); e os de 30 anos, em 4,86% (+2 bps). No Brasil, as taxas de juros recuaram novamente, refletindo os ajustes de posicionamento dos investidores diante da possibilidade de um comunicado mais suave na decisão do Copom prevista para o final do dia. O DI jan/27 fechou a 13,52% (-6 bps), o DI jan/29 a 12,79% (-8 bps) e o DI jan/31 a 13,15% (-7 bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta quinta-feira, os futuros nos Estados Unidos abrem em leve alta (S&P 500: +0,1%; Nasdaq 100: +0,1%) após o FOMC decidir manter taxas de juros estáveis nos EUA, em linha com o esperado, e após divulgações de resultados das Big Techs Microsoft, Meta e Tesla. O foco dos mercados permanece na temporada de resultados, na expectativa do balanço de Apple para o 4T25. O índice pan-europeu opera no positivo nessa manhã (Stoxx 600: +0,3%), e as bolsas chinesas fecharam em alta (HSI:+0,5%; CSI 300: +0,8%).   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a quarta‑feira em alta de 0,22%, impulsionado principalmente pelos Fundos de Fundos, que avançaram 1,28%, pelos Fundos de Papel, que subiram 0,33%, e pelos Fundos de Tijolo, que registraram alta de 0,18%. O movimento refletiu o fechamento da curva de juros, em um pregão marcado pela expectativa em torno da reunião do Copom e pela possibilidade de um comunicado com tom mais brando. Os demais segmentos apresentaram desempenhos mais moderados: os Fundos Multiestratégia avançaram 0,08%, enquanto os Fundos Híbridos foram o destaque negativo do dia, com queda de 0,15%. Entre as maiores altas do pregão estiveram DEVA11 (+2,2%), HFOF11 (+2,2%) e KIVO11 (+2,1%). No campo negativo, os principais destaques foram TGAR11 (-2,8%), RCRB11 (-1,9%) e TOPP11 (-1,6%).   Economia O comitê de política monetária do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central dos Estados Unidos) manteve sua taxa de juros de referência no intervalo entre 3,50% e 3,75%, conforme amplamente esperado. Mais uma vez, a decisão foi dividida, com dez membros votando pela manutenção e dois optando por uma redução de 0,25 p.p. (Stephan Miran e Christopher Waller). O comunicado pós-decisão trouxe importantes ajustes de redação, adotando um tom mais conservador (hawkish). A autoridade monetária suprimiu do comunicado a avaliação de aumento dos riscos baixistas para o emprego e de deslocamento do balanço de riscos (da inflação para o mercado de trabalho). Os preços de ativos financeiros mudaram pouco após a decisão do Fed. Continuamos a projetar apenas um corte de 0,25 p.p. na taxa básica de juros em 2026, devido sobretudo à força da atividade econômica local.  No Brasil, o Copom manteve a taxa Selic em 15,00%, em linha com as expectativas da maioria do mercado. O comunicado pós-reunião indicou que a política monetária pode se tornar menos contracionista à frente, tendo em vista a melhora recente no cenário de inflação. A sinalização foi inequívoca: "O Comitê antevê, em se confirmando o cenário esperado, iniciar a flexibilização da política monetária". A projeção de inflação do Copom para o 3º trimestre de 2027 — atual horizonte relevante da política monetária — permaneceu em 3,2%. Vale lembrar que a taxa de câmbio utilizada nas projeções divulgadas é mais depreciada do que o nível atual (R$/US$ 5,35, contra cerca de R$/US$ 5,20). Utilizando o câmbio vigente, a previsão ficaria na meta de 3,0%. A decisão e a sinalização do Copom reforçaram nosso cenário de cinco cortes consecutivos de 0,50 p.p. a partir de março, levando a taxa Selic para 12,50% no 3º trimestre deste ano.      O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. Fed mantém juros, com comunicação mais conservadora; Copom mantém taxa Selic em 15%, mas sinaliza flexibilização monetária a partir de março   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1. Demanda pelo terceiro leilão do Eco Invest surpreende em 10x o esperado pelo Tesouro | Café com ESG, 29/01         Clique aqui para acessar o relatório Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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