Morning call | Mercados hoje: dados de inflação e decisão sobre juros no Brasil e nos EUA

XP Research 10 de dezembro de 2025 Morning Call Mercados hoje: dados de inflação e decisão sobre juros no Brasil e nos EUA  Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify     Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de terça-feira (9) em queda de 0,1%, aos 157.981 pontos. O índice chegou a recuar 1,8% pela manhã, mas reduziu as perdas ao longo do dia após a notícia de que o PL da Dosimetria deveria ser pautado ainda hoje na Câmara dos Deputados, o que trouxe algum alívio ao mercado. Entre os destaques positivos da sessão esteve Embraer (EMBR3, +3,0%). A companhia anunciou, na segunda-feira (8), dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio que somam cerca de R$ 180 milhões. Na ponta negativa, Cyrela (CYRE3, -2,6%) devolveu parte da alta de 4,2% registrada no pregão anterior. Para a sessão desta quarta-feira (10), o foco dos investidores estará na "Superquarta", marcada pelas decisões de política monetária no Brasil e nos Estados Unidos.   Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros encerraram a terça-feira em alta ao longo da curva, após um dia marcado por forte pressão decorrente do noticiário político. Apesar de algum alívio no fim da sessão, o movimento não foi suficiente para reverter a alta acumulada. Assim, o DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,91% (+0,5 bps vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 13,76% (+0,6 bps); DI jan/29 em 13,19% (+4,7 bps); DI jan/31 em 13,47% (+7,2 bps). Nos Estados Unidos, os dados do JOLTS vieram acima do esperado, com 7,67 milhões de vagas abertas em outubro frente a 7,12 milhões do consenso. Com isso, os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,61% (+3,96 bps vs. pregão anterior); enquanto os de 10 anos em 4,18% (+1,86 bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta quarta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam estáveis (S&P 500: 0,0%; Nasdaq 100: 0,0%), enquanto os investidores aguardam a decisão de política monetária do Federal Reserve, que deve anunciar hoje o terceiro corte consecutivo de 25 bps. A divisão interna entre membros do FOMC reforça a incerteza sobre o tom do comunicado e da coletiva de Powell, já que parte do comitê teme enfraquecimento adicional do mercado de trabalho, enquanto outra parcela avalia que novos cortes poderiam reacender pressões inflacionárias. As negociações de ontem mostraram movimentos marginais nos principais índices, com pressão em bancos, especialmente JPMorgan, e uma rotação contínua para small caps, que voltam a ganhar força diante da perspectiva de queda nos custos de financiamento em 2026. Na Europa, os mercados operam em queda antes da decisão do Fed (Stoxx 600: -0,1%), com investidores também monitorando a sinalização dos demais bancos centrais que se reúnem ao longo de dezembro. A percepção de que cortes adicionais podem ocorrer apenas em 2026 também pesa sobre o sentimento, em meio às recentes declarações de Donald Trump sobre a "fraqueza" dos líderes europeus e às negociações sensíveis envolvendo Ucrânia. Dados regionais, como vendas no varejo britânico e indicadores de exportação alemã, também entram no radar. Na China, os mercados fecharam com desempenhos mistos (HSI: +0,4%; CSI 300: -0,1%) após a divulgação do CPI de novembro, enquanto o PPI permanece em território negativo, sinalizando persistência de deflação industrial. Demais mercados asiáticos mostram desempenho variado, com Nikkei e Kospi recuando, enquanto o Kosdaq avança com apoio do setor tecnológico. O ambiente regional segue cauteloso à espera da decisão do Fed e de eventuais sinais sobre o ritmo de cortes em 2026.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a terça-feira em leve queda de 0,06%, refletindo a abertura da curva de juros em resposta ao noticiário político. O movimento pressionou principalmente os fundos de tijolo, que recuaram 0,07%, enquanto os fundos de papel registraram queda marginal de 0,02%. Com esse desempenho, o IFIX acumula alta de 0,41% no mês e de 17,95% no ano. Entre os destaques positivos da sessão estiveram URPR11 (+4,4%), BRCR11 (+2,1%) e BBIG11 (+2,0%). Já entre as principais quedas, destacaram-se SNFF11 (-1,6%), VINO11 (-1,6%) e FATN11 (-1,3%).   Economia   Nos Estados Unidos, as vagas de emprego mostraram um aumento no mês de outubro, mas as contratações e as demissões continuaram a cair, sugerindo que o mercado de trabalho permanece em um estado "sem contratações, sem demissões". Na China, o índice preços ao consumidor mostrou aceleração e subiu 0,7% na comparação anual ante 0,2% registrado em outubro, mas ficou abaixo da expectativa de 0,8%. Já o índice de preços ao produtor mostrou declínio de 2,2%, pior do que o mês anterior e as estimativas do mercado. Na agenda do dia, destaque nos Estados para a decisão de política monetária pelo comitê de mercado aberto (Fomc). Espera-se um corte adicional de 0,25 p.p. na esteira do desaquecimento do mercado de trabalho. Contudo, o mercado deve ficar atento à divisão do comitê e, principalmente, ao comunicado e à entrevista pós-decisão. No Brasil, teremos a divulgação da inflação de novembro, na qual esperamos alta de 0,17% ante o mês anterior para o indicador cheio e de 0,21% para a média dos núcleos. Por fim, teremos a decisão da taxa de juros pelo Copom. A expectativa amplamente majoritária é de manutenção do atual patamar, mas o mercado estará atento principalmente ao comunicado pós decisão. Esperamos que o Copom inicie o ciclo afrouxamento monetário com corte de 0,5 p.p. em março do ano que vem.      O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. Super quarta-feira! FOMC deve reduzir taxas de juros nos EUA, COPOM deve mantê-las no Brasil   EMPRESAS:    1. Vale (VALE3): alocação de capital disciplinada equilibrando crescimento e dividendos 2. Klabin (KLBN11): desalavancagem em Progresso 3. Vibra Energia (VBBR3) | Combate à ilegalidade – Destaques do Investor Day     RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1.Petrobras (PETR4) busca parceiros para expandir a produção de biodiesel no Brasil | Café com ESG, 10/12 2.As tendências que os investidores não podem ignorar             Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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