Selic em 15%: onde investir agora? Expert Drops

XP Research Você já sabe como investir em novembro? Nesta semana, o Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) manteve a taxa de juros brasileira em 15,00%, conforme amplamente esperado (link). A decisão está alinhada ao cenário-base dos nossos economistas, segundo o qual a taxa Selic atingirá 12,00% no próximo ano, após seis cortes consecutivos de 0,50 p.p. a partir de março. Diante desse cenário, como ficam os investimentos em renda fixa? Preparamos uma simulação dos principais ativos da modalidade (link). Embora os investidores tenham se mostrado mais otimistas com a perspectiva de cortes de juros à frente e com o trade eleitoral, mostramos no Raio XP de novembro que fatores globais explicam a maior parte da forte performance das ações brasileiras em 2025 até agora. Seguimos com uma visão construtiva para as ações e fizemos algumas alterações nas carteiras XP, confira todas as recomendações (link). Pela temporada de balanços do 3º trimestre, divulgaram resultados empresas como Vale, Brava e CSN (link). No campo dos fundos imobiliários, vale acompanhar o Superclássicos de FIIs, evento online e gratuito que discute oportunidades nos principais segmentos (link). Confira tudo nesta edição da Expert Drops. Toda semana, trazemos recomendações e análises na medida certa para você investir melhor. Conte conosco e até a semana que vem! DESTAQUES Copom: sem queimar a largada Depois da manutenção da Selic em 15% ao ano, o comunicado pós-reunião do Copom reiterou, em grande parte, as mensagens do encontro anterior, reforçando a necessidade de manter a taxa de juros em seu nível "por período bastante prolongado". Em nossa visão, as próximas leituras de inflação e atividade deverão convencer o Copom de que a política monetária restritiva está surtindo efeito. Assim, em 2026, não será necessário manter o grau de aperto vigente em 2025. Saiba mais aqui. Como fica a renda fixa com a Selic em 15%? Nossa visão segue positiva para a renda fixa, em especial para os títulos IPCA+ (que continuam em patamares reais elevados). Para prazos mais curtos e com foco em liquidez, os pós-fixados permanecem como boas opções, principalmente considerando os juros em dois dígitos. Os prefixados passam a ganhar espaço, à medida em que nos aproximamos de um possível corte na Selic. Veja a simulação completa para os ativos aqui. Carteiras recomendadas para novembro Segundo o time de alocação da XP, para o mês de novembro, realizamos um aumento de 2,5% na exposição em renda variável Brasil nas carteiras das políticas de investimentos moderada e sofisticada. Além disso, houve redução, de igual magnitude (2,5%), no orçamento de risco da renda fixa pós-fixada, mais especificamente em crédito privado. Veja todas as nossas carteiras aqui. As melhores oportunidades em fundos imobiliários No Superclássicos de FIIs, o head de fundos listados da XP, Marx Gonçalves, recebe analistas e gestores para debater as melhores oportunidades em fundos imobiliários. O evento - online e gratuito - traz tendências e recomendações nos diversos segmentos de FIIs: shopping centers, fundos de papel, logísticos, lajes corporativas e FII-Infras. Confira todos os vídeos aqui. MAIS DESTAQUES DA SEMANA Temporada de resultados Dentre as empresas que anunciaram balanços nesta semana, a Vale reportou resultados em linha no 3º trimestre, com EBITDA ajustado de US$ 4,4 bilhões. Reiteramos nossa recomendação neutra para a empresa, com perspectiva relativamente cautelosa sobre os preços do minério de ferro no médio prazo. O Itaú entregou mais um trimestre sólido, com lucro líquido recorrente de R$ 11,9 bilhões. Continuamos vendo o banco como um player diferenciado, com resultados consistentes e previsíveis mesmo em um ciclo de maior incerteza. Veja todas as análises do 3° trimestre. Bolsa tem nova máxima Os mercados globais continuaram em alta em outubro, enquanto no Brasil observamos um "mês de dois opostos": uma correção na primeira parte do mês, seguida por uma forte recuperação na segunda, com o Ibovespa renovando sua máxima histórica em reais. Mantemos nosso preço-alvo do Ibovespa para o fim de 2026 em 170 mil pontos. Continuamos vendo o valuation como atrativo, com o índice sendo negociado a 9,3x Preço/Lucro projetado. Saiba tudo no Raio-XP de novembro. Como encontrar os melhores preços na Black Friday A Black Friday se consolidou como uma das principais datas para o varejo no ano. Em 2025, acontecerá no dia 28 de novembro. Por isso, muitas pessoas devem aproveitar o saldão de preços para antecipar as compras de Natal. Separamos cinco dicas para você aproveitar o melhor dessa data. Confira aqui. Metodologia Buffett: lendário investidor teria sucesso no mercado brasileiro? Warren Buffett é referência mundial em investimentos de longo prazo, com uma trajetória de mais de 80 anos e patrimônio superior a US$ 150 bilhões. Você sabia que é possível investir como Buffett? Fizemos um estudo que explora se essa "fórmula" seria eficaz no mercado acionário brasileiro. Veja aqui. APRENDA A INVESTIR Carry trade? É uma estratégia de investimento que permite aos investidores lucrar com a diferença entre as taxas de juros de diferentes países. Cash Cow? Em tradução literal para o português, cash cow significa "vaca de dinheiro". A expressão seria o equivalente a "galinha dos ovos de ouro" no Brasil. Entre investidores, a expressão é usada para falar de produtos capazes de gerar bons níveis de receita de maneira recorrente sem necessidade de elevados custos de manutenção. Dólar futuro? Um tipo de contrato financeiro em que os investidores especulam sobre a variação da taxa de câmbio entre o dólar e o real em uma data posterior.     AGENDA   Segunda-feira, 10 de novembro Brasil 8:25 Boletim Focus Terça-feira, 11 de novembro Brasil 8:00 Ata do Copom 9:00 IPCA China 22:30 CPI   Quarta-feira, 12 de novembro Brasil 9:00 Volume de serviços   Quinta-feira, 13 de novembro Brasil 9:00 Vendas no varejo 9:00 Prognóstico da safra China 23:00 Taxa de desemprego Estados Unidos 10:30 Pedidos de auxílio-desemprego 10:30 CPI Zona do Euro 7:00 Produção industrial   Sexta-feira, 14 de novembro Brasil 9:00 Pnad contínua Estados Unidos 10:30 PPI Zona do Euro 7:00 PIB   VÍDEOS SELIC VAI CAIR: o que fazer com seus INVESTIMENTOS em RENDA FIXA? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlNQLu4oQUQ DESAFIOS FISCAIS e IMPACTOS para a TAXA de JUROS | Econocast 118 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5OM4MKhQeU A VOLTA das LAJES CORPORATIVAS com PATRIA e RBR | Superclássicos de FIIs https://youtube.com/live/sXRJtiwrlDA       Confira todas as nossas análises e invista melhor Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. XP Investimentos is not liable for any decisions made by the customer based on this report. 2) This report was prepared considering the product risk classification in order to generate allocation results for each investor profile.   3) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers.  No part of analyst(s) compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. 4) The signatory of this report declare that the recommendations reflect solely and exclusively their personal analyses and opinions, which have been produced independently, including in relation to XP Investimentos and which are subject to modifications without notice due to changes in market conditions, and that their remuneration are indirectly affected by revenue from business and financial transactions carried out by XP Investimentos.   5) The analyst responsible for the content of this report and the compliance with CVM Resolution 20/2021 is indicated above, and, in the event of an indication of another analyst in the report, the person responsible will be the first accredited analyst to be mentioned in Report.   6) XP Investimentos’ analysts are obligated to comply with all the rules laid down in the APIMEC’s conduct code for the securities analyst and XP Investimentos’ analyst of securities conduct policy.   7) Customer service is carried out by XP Investimentos employees or by autonomous investment agents who perform their activities through XP, in accordance with CVM Resolution 178/2023, which are registered in the national association of brokers and distributors of securities (“ANCORD”). The autonomous agent of investment may not provide consulting, administration or management of customer net worth, and must act as an intermediary and request prior authorization from the client for the realization of any operation in the capital market.   8) For the purpose of verifying the adequacy of the investor's profile to the investment services and products offered by XP Investimentos, we use the methodology of adequacy of products by portfolio, in accordance with the ANBIMA Rules and Procedures of Suitability No. 01 and the ANBIMA Code of Regulation and Best Practices for Distribution of Investment Products. This methodology consists of assigning a maximum risk score for each investor profile (conservative, moderate and aggressive), as well as a risk score for each of the products offered by XP Investimentos, so that all customers can have access to all products, provided that within the amounts and limits of the risk score defined for their profile. Before applying to the products and/or contracting the services subject to this material, it is important that you verify that your current risk score includes the application in the products and/or the contracting of the services in question, as well as whether there are limitations of volume, concentration and/or quantity for the desired application. You can consult this information directly at the time of transmission of your order or by consulting the overall risk of your wallet on the portfolio screen (Risk View).f your current risk score does not support the desired application/contract, or if there are limitations in relation to the amount and/or financial volume for said application/contracting, this means that, based on the current composition of your portfolio, this application/contract is not appropriate to your profile. If you have questions about the process of suiting the products offered by XP Investimentos to your investor profile, please refer to the FAQ. Market conditions, climate change and the macroeconomic scenario can affect investment performance. 9) The profitability of financial products may present variations and their price or value may increase or decrease in a short period of time. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance disclosed is not net of any applicable taxes. The information present in this material is based on simulations and the actual results may be significantly different. 10) This report is intended exclusively for to the XP Investimentos’ network, including independent XP agents and XP customers, and may also be released on XP’s website. It is prohibited to reproduce or redistribute this report to any person, in whole or in part, whatever the purpose, without the prior express consent of XP Investimentos. 11) XP Investimentos’ ombudsman has the mission to serve as a contact channel whenever customers who do not feel satisfied with the solutions given by the company to their problems. The contact can be made via telephone 0800 722 3710  if you are in Brazil or via ombudsman form if you are in other localities: ttps://institucional.xpi.com.br/ouvidoria.aspx/.   12) The cost of the transactions billing policies are defined in the operational cost tables which are made available on XP Investimentos website: www.xpi.com.br. 13) XP Investimentos is exempt from any liability for any damages, direct or indirect, that come from the use of this report or its contents.   14) Technical analysis and fundamental analysis follow different methodologies. Technical analysis is performed following concepts such as trends, support, resistance, candles, volume, and moving averages, amongst others. Fundamental analysis uses as information the results disseminated by the issuing companies and their projections. In this way, the opinions of fundamental analysts, who seek the best returns given the market conditions, the macroeconomic scenario and the specific events of the company and the sector, may differ from the opinions of technical analysts, which aim to Identify the most likely movements on asset prices, using "stops" limit possible losses.   15) Equity investments available are portion a company’s capital that is traded on the market. Stock is a variable financial investment (i.e. an investment in which profitability is not pre-established and varies depending on market quotations). Investment in stock is a high-risk investment and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no statement or warranty, expressed or implied, is made in this material in relation to future performance. Market conditions, macroeconomic scenario, company and sector specific events can affect investment performance and may even result in significant asset losses. The recommended duration for equity investments is medium-long term. There is no guarantee of investment return for customers’ investments in stock.   16) Investment in options is the purchase or sale rights of a good shall be negotiated at a price fixed at a future date, and the purchaser of the negotiated duty should pay a premium to the seller as in a secure agreement. Operations with these derivatives are considered very high risk for presenting high risk and return relationships and some positions present the possibility of losses higher than the capital invested. The recommended duration for the investment is short-term and the customer's assets are not guaranteed in this type of product.   17) Investment in terms are contracts for the purchase or sale of a certain number of shares at a fixed price for settlement within a specified period. The term of the contract is freely chosen by the investors, complying with the minimum period of 16 days and a maximum of 999 days. The price will be the value of the added share of a portion corresponding to the interest-which are set freely on the market, depending on the term of the contract. Every transaction in the term requires a guarantee deposit. These guarantees are provided in two forms: coverage or margin. 18) Investments in futures markets are subject to significant loss of principal. a commodity is an object or price determinant of a future contract or other derivative instrument, which may substantiate an index, a fee, a movable value or a physical product.  Commodities are considered high risk investments, which include the possibility of price fluctuation due to the use of financial leverage. The recommended duration for commodity investments is short-term and customers’ assets are not guaranteed in this type of product. Market conditions and the macroeconomic scenario can affect the performance investments.   19) This institution is adhering ANBIMA Code of Regulation and best practices for the distribution activity of retail investment products. 20) XP Investments US, LLC, a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, has assumed responsibility for this research for purposes of U.S. law.  All transactions arising from this research should be directed to XP Investments US, LLC, at +1 646-664-0525. 21) XP Investimentos (a) managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months, or (b) received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months; or (c) expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next 3 months.