Selic a 15%, juros nos EUA e impactos para os seus investimentos | Expert Drops

XP Research As decisões de política monetária movimentaram a semana. Na última quarta-feira (17), Comitê de Política Monetária do Banco Central manteve a taxa Selic em 15% ao ano. O comunicado pós-reunião trouxe, em nossa visão (link), um tom mais duro. O Comitê reforçou que pretende manter a política monetária em território restritivo por um "período bastante prolongado". E agora, como ficam os investimentos (link)? Nos Estados Unidos, o Federal Reserve (Fed, banco central norte-americano) cortou em 0,25 ponto percentual sua taxa básica de juros. Qual o impacto do corte sobre as ações brasileiras? Saiba quais setores podem se destacar no relatório completo do nosso time de estratégia (link). E no Expert Talks – Na Mesa com CEOs desta semana, conversamos com Eduardo Sattamini, Country Manager da Engie Brasil (EGIE3), que contou os bastidores da liderança da maior empresa de energia renovável do país (link). Acompanhe tudo nesta edição da Expert Drops. Toda semana, trazemos recomendações e análises na medida certa para você investir melhor. Conte conosco e até a semana que vem! DESTAQUES Ações durante os ciclos de corte de juros nos EUA Analisamos o impacto do esperado corte de juros do FOMC sobre as ações brasileiras, com foco no desempenho após o início de ciclos de afrouxamento monetário. As ações brasileiras tipicamente apresentam fortes retornos no período de um ano após o início do ciclo de corte de juros nos EUA. O MSCI Brasil apresentou retornos positivos em 5 dos 8 últimos ciclos de afrouxamento (62,5% das vezes). Veja o relatório completo aqui. Copom: ainda distante da meta A decisão do comitê em manter a Selic em 15% e a comunicação continuam consistentes com o nosso cenário de início de um ciclo gradual de corte de juros em janeiro, com a taxa Selic atingindo 12% após seis reduções consecutivas de 0,50 p.p.. Afinal, o cenário de inflação melhorou no período recente, tanto por fatores domésticos quanto globais. Saiba mais aqui. Selic em 15% na renda fixa: quanto rendem R$ 10 mil? Nossa visão permanece positiva para a renda fixa, em especial para os títulos IPCA+ (mesmo com a expectativa de inflação mais baixa nos próximos meses, pois os juros reais continuam em patamares elevados). Para prazos mais curtos e com foco em liquidez, os pós-fixados permanecem boas opções, principalmente considerando os juros em dois dígitos. Em razão das altas taxas atuais e futuras, priorizamos a estratégia de carrego em detrimento de ganhos de capital. Continuamos a recomendar cautela na escolha de emissores, com destaque para aqueles com alavancagem controlada e custo de dívida mais baixo. Saiba mais aqui. Engie: "Transição energética já aconteceu", diz Eduardo Sattamini no Expert Talks – Na Mesa com CEOs Eduardo Sattamini, Country Manager da Engie Brasil (EGIE3), foi o convidado do podcast Expert Talks – Na Mesa com CEOs da última quinta-feira. No episódio, disponível no YouTube da XP, Sattamini compartilhou sua trajetória e os principais desafios e estratégias da companhia. Confira o episódio completo aqui. MAIS DESTAQUES DA SEMANA FIIs: O poder do reinvestimento de proventos Construir patrimônio no longo prazo vai além de escolher bons ativos — exige consistência. Nos FIIs, ao automatizar o reinvestimento, o investidor ativa um motor de crescimento contínuo: cada provento reaplicado aumenta a base de cotas, que por sua vez gera mais renda no mês seguinte. É o efeito bola de neve em ação. Mostramos de forma prática porque o reinvestimento é peça-chave na construção de renda recorrente. Saiba mais aqui. Tarifas de Trump: perguntas e respostas Cinco meses se passaram desde o "Liberation Day", ou "Dia da Libertação", em que o presidente dos Estados Unidos (EUA), Donald Trump, anunciou ao mundo uma série de tarifas recíprocas sobre bens importados de vários países. Desde então, o assunto vem gerando diversos desdobramentos no cenário político-econômico global. Preparamos perguntas e respostas relacionadas às tarifas, confira tudo aqui. Natura vende Avon Internacional Após anunciar a venda da Avon CARD na segunda-feira (link), a Natura divulgou agora a venda da Avon Consumer Limited, que compreende todas as operações na região, exceto a Avon Rússia. Acreditamos que o anúncio, junto com o novo formato de divulgação da empresa a partir dos resultados do 3º trimestre, deve ajudar os investidores a retomarem o foco na ação, à medida que a história se torna mais simples e clara. Reiteramos nossa recomendação de compra. Saiba mais aqui. APRENDA A INVESTIR Dovish: a origem vem da palavra dove, pomba em português. Sinaliza uma conduta do Banco Central mais confiante de que o cenário de inflação não será um problema, e, portanto, pendente a adotar uma política monetária expansionista ou menos restritiva para estimular a economia. Hawkish: a origem vem da palavra hawk, falcão em português. Sinaliza uma conduta do Banco Central preocupada com os riscos inflacionários, e, portanto, pendente a adotar uma postura monetária mais dura, com subidas mais fortes na taxa de juros, ainda que isso possa prejudicar o emprego e a atividade no curto prazo. FOMC? Federal Open Market Comittee. O FOMC realiza oito reuniões regulares por ano. Nessas reuniões, o comitê analisa as condições econômicas e financeiras, determina a orientação adequada da política monetária e avalia os riscos para os seus objetivos de longo prazo de estabilidade de preços e crescimento econômico sustentável. AGENDA Segunda-feira, 22 de setembro Brasil 8:25 Boletim Focus Zona do Euro 11:00 Confiança do consumidor Terça-feira, 23 de setembro Japão 21:30 PMI industrial/PMI do setor de serviços   Quarta-feira, 24 de setembro Zona do Euro 4:00 Reunião de política monetária do Banco Central Europeu Brasil 8:00 Confiança do consumidor   Quinta-feira, 25 de setembro Brasil 9:00 IPCA-15 Estados Unidos 9:30 Pedidos de seguro-desemprego 9:30 PIB   Sexta-feira, 26 de setembro Estados Unidos 9:30 Índice de preços (PCE)   VÍDEOS CEO da ENGIE Brasil (EGIE3): transição energética e DIVIDENDOS com EDUARDO SATTAMINI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCcebGVT6gk FIM da ISENÇÃO de debêntures? COMO INVESTIR agora! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUrJ54AYuYM ARMÍNIO FRAGA: ECONOMIA, POLÍTICA E MERCADO | Outliers InfoMoney #171 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjUcSxM3nVg Os melhores FUNDOS IMOBILIÁRIOS (FIIs) de PAPEL para INVESTIR com Marx Gonçalves https://www.youtube.com/live/IUl3YnWYMAY   Confira todas as nossas análises e invista melhor Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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