Morning call | Bolsas hoje: mercados de olho nas decisões de juros no Brasil e nos EUA

XP Research 17 de setembro de 2025 Morning Call Bolsas hoje: mercados de olho nas decisões de juros no Brasil e nos EUA    Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify       Ibovespa   O Ibovespa a terça-feira em alta de 0,4%, aos 144.062 pontos, renovando suas máximas históricas enquanto os investidores aguardam pela "superquarta". No Brasil, a expectativa é de que o Copom mantenha a taxa Selic inalterada em 15,00%, enquanto para os EUA o mercado projeta um corte de 0,25 p.p. pelo Federal Reserve. Marfrig (MRFG3, +5,6%) e BRF (BRFS3, +5,3%) foram os destaques positivos do dia, em meio à expectativa pela data de conclusão da fusão entre as duas companhias, que passarão a ser negociadas sob o mesmo código a partir de 23 de setembro. Na ponta negativa, Natura (NATU3, -2,1%) recuou após a alta de 2,1% no pregão anterior, quando anunciou o primeiro passo do desinvestimento da Avon Internacional, firmando um acordo vinculante para a venda das operações na América Central e na República Dominicana (veja aqui o comentário dos nossos analistas). Para o pregão desta quarta-feira, todas as atenções se voltam para as decisões de política monetária no Brasil e nos EUA.   Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros encerraram a sessão de terça-feira com fechamento ao longo da curva. Nos Estados Unidos, os títulos soberanos recuaram em um dia sem grandes notícias, com o mercado antecipando um possível corte de juros na reunião do FOMC desta quarta-feira. No Brasil, a queda do dólar e a expectativa de flexibilização da política monetária impulsionaram os juros locais, com os indicadores de desemprego em baixa e as movimentações do senador Renan Calheiros sobre temas fiscais ficaram em segundo plano. Com isso, na curva local, DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,89% (- 0,8bps vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 13,95% (- 3,2bps); DI jan/29 em 13,07% (- 5,2bps); DI jan/31 em 13,26% (- 10,1bps). Os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram em 3,50% (-3,35bps vs. pregão anterior), enquanto os de dez anos em 4,03% (-0,96bps).     Mercados globais   Nesta quarta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam próximos à estabilidade (S&P 500: estável; Nasdaq 100: estável) enquanto os investidores aguardam a decisão de política monetária do Federal Reserve. O mercado precifica em 96% um corte de 25 bps na reunião desta quarta-feira, mas a atenção estará voltada para o "dot plot" e para o discurso de Jerome Powell, que podem indicar o ritmo futuro dos juros. Na Europa, as bolsas avançam levemente (Stoxx 600: +0,1%). Entre as ações, Marks & Spencer e Sainsbury's lideram após dados de inflação do Reino Unido mostrarem alta anual de 3,8% em agosto, com alimentos e bebidas alcoólicas e tabaco pressionando. O setor de defesa também avança em meio a notícias de exercícios militares conjuntos entre Rússia, Belarus e Índia. O foco, no entanto, segue no Fed, cuja decisão de juros será divulgada ainda hoje. Na China, os mercados fecharam em alta (HSI: +1,8%; CSI 300: +0,6%) em meio à expectativa pela decisão do rumo da política monetária norte-americana. Após o SAMR, orgão regulador chinês, informar que a Nvidia violou a lei antitruste do país em sua aquisição da Mellanox em 2020, a China proibiu que empresas de tecnologia nacional de comprar chips de inteligência artificial da Nvidia.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou o pregão de terça-feira com avanço 0,28%. Com isso, o índice acumula alta de 2,32% no mês de setembro e de 14,14% no ano. O movimento foi impulsionado pelo fechamento das curvas de juros, em meio às expectativas para a decisão do Copom. No desempenho setorial, tanto os fundos de tijolo quanto os de papel registraram alta na semana, com variações médias de 0,36% e 0,17%, respectivamente. Entre as maiores valorizações, destacaram-se CACR11 (2,8%), XPSF11 (2,6%) e RBRP11 (2,5%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram JSAF11 (-1,4%), RBFF11 (-1,1%) e RCRB11 (-0,8%).   Economia   Dados de atividade econômica mostraram sinais positivos nos Estados Unidos. A produção industrial cresceu 0,2% em agosto, puxada pela produção de veículos automotores e bens não duráveis. Por sua vez, as vendas no varejo no mesmo mês mostraram alta de 0,6% ante o mês anterior, alta impulsionada em grande parte pelo comércio eletrônico. Embora positivos, esses resultados não alteram a perspectiva de desaceleração da atividade neste ano. Na Zona do Euro, a inflação se manteve praticamente estável em 2,0%. No Brasil, o desemprego atingiu a mínima histórica graças a estabilidade da população ocupada e queda na força de trabalho. Os salários reais cresceram pelo décimo mês consecutivo, impulsionando a massa de renda real. Nesta quarta-feira teremos a decisão de política monetária no Brasil e nos Estados Unidos. Lá fora, expectativa de corte de 25 pontos base, com atenções voltadas à coletiva pós-decisão, que podem indicar os próximos passos de política monetária do Fed. No Brasil, o Copom deve manter os juros em 15% e reforçar a comunicação de que os juros devem permanecer altos por um tempo prolongado – esperamos que o Copom só inicie o ciclo de afrouxamento monetário no início do não que vem.            O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. Superquarta-feira: Fed deve reduzir taxa de juros, Copom deve mantê-la inalterada   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1.Milei planeja privatizar operadora nuclear da Argentina visando promover o investimento privado | Café com ESG, 17/09                   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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