Telefônica Brasil / Vivo (VIVT3): Mesmas tendências sólidas de crescimento na receita, mas lucro abaixo do esperado
A Vivo reportou resultados sólidos no primeiro trimestre em termos de crescimento da receita, mas lucro abaixo do esperado. A empresa registrou forte crescimento na receita (+6,5% A/A), com as receitas de FTTH e serviços móveis (MSR) crescendo +14,7% e +9,3%, respectivamente. Além disso, a margem EBITDA ficou praticamente estável em relação ao ano anterior, atingindo 39% (-100bps vs. XPe). Por fim, a Vivo reportou lucro líquido de R$ 896 milhões, um aumento de +7,4% A/A, mas -15,1% abaixo das nossas estimativas, impactado por impostos e despesas financeiras mais altas do que o esperado. No geral, mantemos nossa recomendação de compra e preço-alvo de R$ 64,00/ação para VIVT3 para o final de 2024.
Os números. A receita líquida consolidada cresceu +6,5% A/A, alcançando R$ 13,5 bilhões e ficando em linha com as nossas estimativas. Vale destacar o desempenho positivo de FTTH e MSR, +14,7% e +9,3%, respectivamente. As receitas dos negócios legados caíram acentuadamente (-15,1% A/A). O EBITDA aumentou 6,8% A/A, e a margem EBITDA ficou 100 bps das nossas estimativas, mas aumentou 10bps em relação ao ano anterior, atingindo 39,0%. Isso foi impulsionado principalmente pelo sólido desempenho das receitas principais e pelo controle eficaz de custos. No entanto, outras despesas operacionais totalizaram -R$ 129 milhões no 1T24, principalmente devido a uma diminuição na recuperação de impostos e à redução das vendas de materiais de rede não utilizados em comparação com o 1T23. Por fim, a Vivo reportou lucro líquido de R$ 896 milhões, um aumento de +7,4% A/A, mas -15,1% abaixo das nossas estimativas e das estimativas do consenso.
As receitas pós-pagas (83% das receitas de serviços móveis) aumentaram 11,4% A/A, devido ao aumento na base de clientes (+6,6% A/A), tanto por migrações do pré-pago quanto pela aquisição de novos clientes, e ajustes de preços anuais. No 1T, o churn pós-pago (ex-M2M) manteve seu nível histórico mais baixo, de 0,97% ao mês. Por outro lado, as receitas do pré-pago diminuíram -0,1% A/A devido à migração de acessos pré-pagos para planos controle, o que beneficia a dinâmica geral de receita móvel. As vendas de aparelhos cresceram +3,1% A/A, com smartphones 5G representando 88% dos dispositivos vendidos.
As receitas de linha fixa da Vivo cresceram +1,6% A/A. As receitas de FTTH atingiram R$ 1,7 bilhão, um aumento de +14,7% A/A. Atualmente, o FTTH representa 60% das receitas fixas principais. De acordo com a empresa, o desempenho do FTTH foi impulsionado pela oferta convergente de fibra e pós-pago (Vivo Total), que representou 82% das adições brutas de fibra nas lojas da Vivo nos últimos três meses e pelo ajuste de preços anual. O ARPU do FTTH cresceu +2,0% A/A, alcançando R$ 91,4. As receitas nos negócios legados diminuíram -15,1% A/A. A Vivo adicionou 2,4 milhões de novos HPs e conectou 697 mil clientes de FTTH nos últimos doze meses. Também destacamos que os dados corporativos, TIC e outras receitas registraram um sólido crescimento de receita de +3,5% A/A, devido a uma base comparativa forte no 1T23.
Nossa visão: Esperamos uma reação neutra ou ligeiramente negativa, embora vejamos o resultado principalmente em linha com nossos números e o consenso, mantendo a dinâmica de crescimento acelerado na receita, dada a capacidade do setor de repassar preços. No entanto, vale ressaltar a margem abaixo das expectativas e despesas financeiras ligeiramente mais altas levando a uma queda no EPS. Apesar da base comparativa desafiadora, a geração de fluxo de caixa livre permanece sólida com crescimento na linha inferior em relação ao ano anterior. Em nossa opinião, a tese de investimento permanece intacta, combinando defensividade, dividendos e crescimento do fluxo de caixa. Negociando a 14,0x P/E e 4,2x EV/EBITDA, reiteramos nossa recomendação de compra e preço-alvo de R$ 64,00/ação para o final de 2024.
Brazil Telecom: 4Q23 Earnings Preview; TIMS3 and VIVT3 (ENG PORT)
Brazil Telecom: Data Expert | Anatel Tracker; November 2023 results (ENGPORT)
Bemobi (BMOB3): Nomo Acquisition; A complement to the telecom services (ENGPORT)
Brazil TMT: Year Ahead: Reviewing our theses before the lights go out; Introducing our 2024 Target Prices (ENG PORT)
Bernardo Guttmann Head de TMT bernardo.guttmann@xpi.com.br
Marco Nardini Analista de TMT marco.nardini@xpi.com.br
Disclaimer
1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. XP Investimentos is not liable for any decisions made by the customer based on this report.
2) This report was prepared considering the product risk classification in order to generate allocation results for each investor profile.
3) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of analyst(s) compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
4) The signatory of this report declare that the recommendations reflect solely and exclusively their personal analyses and opinions, which have been produced independently, including in relation to XP Investimentos and which are subject to modifications without notice due to changes in market conditions, and that their remuneration are indirectly affected by revenue from business and financial transactions carried out by XP Investimentos.
5) The analyst responsible for the content of this report and the compliance with CVM Resolution 20/2021 is indicated above, and, in the event of an indication of another analyst in the report, the person responsible will be the first accredited analyst to be mentioned in Report.
6) XP Investimentos’ analysts are obligated to comply with all the rules laid down in the APIMEC’s conduct code for the securities analyst and XP Investimentos’ analyst of securities conduct policy.
7) Customer service is carried out by XP Investimentos employees or by autonomous investment agents who perform their activities through XP, in accordance with CVM Resolution 16/2021, which are registered in the national association of brokers and distributors of securities (“ANCORD”). The autonomous agent of investment may not provide consulting, administration or management of customer net worth, and must act as an intermediary and request prior authorization from the client for the realization of any operation in the capital market.
8) The products presented in this report may not be suitable for all types of customer. Before making any decisions, customers should ensure that the products presented are suitable for their investor profile. This material does not suggest any change of portfolio, but only guidance on products suitable to a certain investor profile.
9) The profitability of financial products may present variations and their price or value may increase or decrease in a short period of time. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance disclosed is not net of any applicable taxes. The information present in this material is based on simulations and the actual results may be significantly different.
10) This report is intended exclusively for to the XP Investimentos’ network, including independent XP agents and XP customers, and may also be released on XP’s website. It is prohibited to reproduce or redistribute this report to any person, in whole or in part, whatever the purpose, without the prior express consent of XP Investimentos.
11) XP Investimentos’ ombudsman has the mission to serve as a contact channel whenever customers who do not feel satisfied with the solutions given by the company to their problems. The contact can be made via telephone 0800 722 3710 if you are in Brazil or via ombudsman form if you are in other localities: ttps://institucional.xpi.com.br/ouvidoria.aspx/.
12) The cost of the transactions billing policies are defined in the operational cost tables which are made available on XP Investimentos website: www.xpi.com.br.
13) XP Investimentos is exempt from any liability for any damages, direct or indirect, that come from the use of this report or its contents.
14) Technical analysis and fundamental analysis follow different methodologies. Technical analysis is performed following concepts such as trends, support, resistance, candles, volume, and moving averages, amongst others. Fundamental analysis uses as information the results disseminated by the issuing companies and their projections. In this way, the opinions of fundamental analysts, who seek the best returns given the market conditions, the macroeconomic scenario and the specific events of the company and the sector, may differ from the opinions of technical analysts, which aim to Identify the most likely movements on asset prices, using "stops" limit possible losses.
15) Investment in stocks is appropriate for moderate and aggressive profile investors, according to the suitability policy practiced by XP Investimentos. Equity investments available are portion a company’s capital that is traded on the market. Stock is a variable financial investment (i.e. an investment in which profitability is not pre-established and varies depending on market quotations). Investment in stock is a high-risk investment and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no statement or warranty, expressed or implied, is made in this material in relation to future performance. Market conditions, macroeconomic scenario, company and sector specific events can affect investment performance and may even result in significant asset losses. The recommended duration for equity investments is medium-long term. There is no guarantee of investment return for customers’ investments in stock.
16) Investment in options is preferably indicated for aggressive profile investors, according to the suitability policy practiced by XP Investimentos. In options market, the purchase or sale rights of a good shall be negotiated at a price fixed at a future date, and the purchaser of the negotiated duty should pay a premium to the seller as in a secure agreement. Operations with these derivatives are considered very high risk for presenting high risk and return relationships and some positions present the possibility of losses higher than the capital invested. The recommended duration for the investment is short-term and the customer's assets are not guaranteed in this type of product.
17) Investment in terms is indicated for aggressive profile investors, according to the suitability policy practiced by XP Investimentos. They are contracts for the purchase or sale of a certain number of shares at a fixed price for settlement within a specified period. The term of the contract is freely chosen by the investors, complying with the minimum period of 16 days and a maximum of 999 days. The price will be the value of the added share of a portion corresponding to the interest-which are set freely on the market, depending on the term of the contract. Every transaction in the term requires a guarantee deposit. These guarantees are provided in two forms: coverage or margin.
18) Investments in futures markets are subject to significant loss of principal, and are therefore appropriate for aggressive profile investors, according to the suitability policies practiced by XP Investimentos. A commodity is an object or price determinant of a future contract or other derivative instrument, which may substantiate an index, a fee, a movable value or a physical product. Commodities are considered high risk investments, which include the possibility of price fluctuation due to the use of financial leverage. The recommended duration for commodity investments is short-term and customers’ assets are not guaranteed in this type of product. Market conditions and the macroeconomic scenario can affect the performance investments.
19) This institution is adhering ANBIMA Code of Regulation and best practices for the distribution activity of retail investment products.
20) XP Investments US, LLC, a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, has assumed responsibility for this research for purposes of U.S. law. All transactions arising from this research should be directed to XP Investments US, LLC, at +1 646-664-0525.
Esse email foi enviado para 907blog001.teia@blogger.com
Caso não queira mais receber nossos emails acesse esse link.
Este e-mail foi enviado por: XP Investimentos Corretora de Cambio, Titulos e Valores Mobiliarios S.A. CNPJ 02.332.886 0011-78 - Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, São Paulo, SP, CEP 04538-132