Morning Call | Feriado nos EUA e dados de emprego no Brasil

XP Research 27 de Novembro de 2025     Morning Call | Feriado nos EUA e dados de emprego no Brasil   IPCA-15 e Caged são alguns dos temas de maior destaque nesta quinta-feira, 27/11/2025     Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de quarta-feira em alta de 1,7%, aos 158.555 pontos. O movimento foi impulsionado pelo IPCA-15 de novembro e pelo cenário externo favorável, com novas altas das bolsas globais (S&P 500, +0,7%; Nasdaq, +0,9%). No lado micro, bancos se destacaram, além das mineradoras, que acompanharam a alta do minério de ferro (+0,6%).   Os papéis da Rumo (RAIL3, +9,1%) lideraram os ganhos, após notícias de que a Ultrapar (UGPA3, -0,4%) está próxima de atingir uma participação de 5% na companhia. Na ponta negativa, Hapvida (HAPV3, -7,2%) voltou a recuar, ainda refletindo a divulgação de resultados significativamente abaixo das expectativas no 3T25, o que gerou uma onda de revisões negativas nas recomendações de analistas.   Para o pregão de quinta-feira, destaque para a divulgação do relatório Caged de outubro no Brasil. Além disso, pela temporada internacional de resultados do 3T25, teremos Dell.   Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros apresentaram movimentos mistos ao longo da curva nesta quarta-feira. No Brasil, o IPCA-15 de novembro avançou 0,20%, acima das expectativas de 0,18% do mercado, mas o impacto sobre a curva foi limitado, com os vértices intermediários oscilando pouco, enquanto os prazos mais longos recuaram. O DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,89% (-0,2bp); DI jan/27 em 13,51% (+0,6bp); DI jan/29 em 12,71% (-3,2bps); e DI jan/31 em 13,02% (-8,3bps). Nos Estados Unidos, a ponta curta reagiu aos pedidos semanais de seguro-desemprego, que vieram abaixo do esperado (216 mil vs. 225 mil), enquanto as Treasuries de longo prazo recuaram, refletindo maior busca por segurança. Os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos fecharam em 3,47% (+1,63bps) e os de dez anos em 3,99% (-0,24bp).   Mercados globais   Nesta quinta-feira, os mercados nos EUA estão fechados devido ao feriado de Dia de Ação de Graças. Na sessão anterior, as bolsas americanas registraram o quarto dia consecutivo de alta, impulsionadas pela recuperação do setor de tecnologia, onde o S&P 500 ganhou 0,7% e o Nasdaq subiu 0,8%. Oracle disparou cerca de 4% após o Deutsche Bank reafirmar sua visão otimista, enquanto Nvidia recuperou mais de 1% e Microsoft avançou quase 2%. Alphabet também permaneceu forte, renovando máximas históricas nesta semana com expectativas ligadas ao uso de seus chips TPU pela Meta. Mesmo com a sequência de ganhos, novembro segue negativo para os índices devido às preocupações com valuations elevadas.   Na Europa, as bolsas operam em leve queda (Stoxx 600: -0,1%), refletindo a digestão do cenário econômico global e mesmo com expectativas de alívio monetário nos EUA. Puma lidera os ganhos, saltando até 16% após notícias de que a chinesa Anta Sports estaria avaliando uma oferta pela companhia. Já Novo Nordisk recua 1,7% após o CMS divulgar o preço renegociado de Ozempic e Wegovy para 2027, representando forte desconto em relação ao valor atual. Os mercados também acompanham dados como a confiança do consumidor da Alemanha e o sentimento econômico da União Europeia.   Na China, os mercados fecharam estáveis (CSI 300: 0,0%; HSI: +0,1%), mesmo com o forte rali americano e otimismo com corte de juros pelo Fed, após dados mostrarem queda de 5,5% nos lucros industriais de outubro. O Nikkei 225 avançou 1,2%, puxado pelo setor de tecnologia. O Kospi subiu 0,7% após o Banco da Coreia manter os juros em 2,5% pela quarta reunião seguida, enquanto o Kosdaq ganhou 0,3%.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a sessão de quarta-feira em queda de 0,36%, em movimento de correção após as altas recentes. A retração foi liderada pelos fundos de papel, que recuaram 0,40%, enquanto os fundos de tijolo registraram baixa de 0,33%. A atenção dos investidores esteve voltada para a divulgação do IPCA-15 de novembro, que avançou 0,20%, acima da expectativa do mercado de 0,18%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se VGRI11 (2,5%), PSEC11 (2,1%) e HSAF11 (1,6%). Entre as principais quedas, figuraram TGAR11 (-2,2%), RBVA11 (-1,8%) e PCIP11 (-1,7%).    Economia   No Brasil, o IPCA-15 de novembro (prévia da inflação mensal) subiu 0,20% em comparação com outubro, ligeiramente acima da nossa previsão e da mediana das expectativas de mercado (0,18%). Com isso, a inflação anual cedeu de 4,9% para 4,5%. Mais uma vez, destaque para o recuo nos grupos de preços de alimentos e bens industrializados, que reflete a apreciação cambial, as cotações internacionais das commodities em níveis mais baixos e a produção agrícola recorde. Por outro lado, o componente de serviços intensivos em mão de obra continua muito acima da meta, em linha com o mercado de trabalho apertado. Nossa projeção de 4,5% para o IPCA de 2025 tem ligeiro viés baixista. Para 2026, continuamos a projetar alta de 4,2%.    Nos Estados Unidos, o Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central local) publicou seu "Livro Bege". Este documento caracteriza as condições e perspectivas econômicas regionais com base em uma variedade de informações, em sua maioria qualitativas. Em relação à atividade econômica, o consumo geral teve desaceleração adicional, com alguns varejistas observando impacto negativo da paralisação do governo (shutdown). O emprego caiu ligeiramente nas últimas semanas, com cerca de metade das regiões citando uma demanda por mão de obra mais fraca. Os salários, em geral, cresceram de forma suave. Além disso, os preços subiram moderadamente durante o período analisado. Houve vários relatos de compressão de margem ou empresas enfrentando dificuldades financeiras decorrentes das tarifas mais altas.  Hoje, a agenda doméstica traz a divulgação da geração líquida de emprego formal (Caged) em outubro. Prevemos saldo mensal de 102.000 ocupações, enquanto a mediana das estimativas de mercado indica 110.000. O mercado de trabalho brasileiro continua sólido, a despeito de sinais incipientes de estabilização. No exterior, a agenda econômica está esvaziada, devido sobretudo ao feriado de "Ação de Graças" nos Estados Unidos.    O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     Sinais adicionais de alívio na inflação brasileira de curto prazo     EMPRESAS:     Bancos: Crescimento sustentado do crédito em meio a aumento moderado da inadimplência COMMODITIES: Mineração e Siderurgia: Produção mundial de aço bruto caiu -6% S/S em out'25; preços do minério de ferro subiram +2% S/S RENDA FIXA:   De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa         Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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