Morning call | Bolsas em queda com dados de emprego nos EUA no radar

XP Research 11 de fevereiro de 2026 Morning Call Bolsas em queda com dados de emprego nos EUA no radar      Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify       Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de terça-feira em leve queda de 0,2%, aos 185.929 pontos. O principal destaque do dia foi a divulgação do IPCA de janeiro, que veio ligeiramente acima das expectativas do mercado, enquanto os investidores seguem no aguardo da divulgação do relatório de empregos nos EUA.   Entre os destaques positivos, Braskem (BRKM5, +8,3%) avançou após a aprovação do regime de urgência para um projeto de lei que amplia os benefícios do REIQ entre março e dezembro de 2026. Na ponta negativa, Eneva (ENEV3, -9,7%) recuou após a Aneel revisar os preços-teto definidos para o próximo leilão de reserva de capacidade, movimento negativo para a companhia.   Para o pregão de quarta-feira, o foco do mercado será o relatório de empregos dos EUA referente a janeiro. Pela temporada de resultados, os principais destaques no Brasil serão Banco do Brasil, Guararapes, Klabin e TOTVS. No cenário internacional, atenção para os balanços de McDonald's e Heineken.   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros dos EUA fecharam a terça‑feira (10) em queda, à espera do payroll de janeiro, após indicadores mais fracos de varejo e custo de emprego e discursos de dirigentes do Fed. O Tesouro leiloou US$ 58 bilhões em T‑notes de 3 anos, com taxa de 3,518% e bid‑to‑cover de 2,62. A T‑Note de 2 anos caiu para 3,45% (‑4 bps), a de 10 anos para 4,14% (‑6 bps) e o T‑Bond de 30 anos para 4,78% (‑7 bps). No Brasil, os juros futuros subiram em realização pós‑IPCA, que mostrou desaceleração, mas ainda pressão em componentes sensíveis à política monetária. O DI jan/27 fechou a 13,38% (+3 bps), o DI jan/29 a 12,75% (+5 bps) e o DI jan/31 a 13,15% (+4 bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta quarta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em queda (S&P 500: -0,1%; Nasdaq 100: -0,2%), com investidores aguardando a divulgação do relatório de emprego (payroll) de janeiro, que foi adiado devido ao shutdown parcial do governo. Economistas esperam criação de 55 mil vagas em janeiro, ante 50 mil em dezembro, com taxa de desemprego projetada em 4,4%. Na sessão anterior, o S&P 500 caiu -0,3% e o Nasdaq recuou cerca de -0,6%, pressionados por preocupações com o impacto da inteligência artificial no setor financeiro. Ainda na semana, investidores acompanham o CPI na sexta-feira.   Na Europa, as bolsas operam em leve queda (Stoxx 600: -0,3%), com exceção do FTSE 100, que sobe +0,3% com rotação para ações de energia e mineração. Entre os destaques corporativos, a Heineken avança cerca de 4% após anunciar corte de 5.000 a 6.000 empregos em meio a estratégia de reestruturação e projetar crescimento do lucro operacional entre 2% e 6% neste ano. Já a Dassault Systèmes despenca cerca de 19% após resultados abaixo do esperado, enquanto o Commerzbank reportou lucro operacional recorde, mas suas ações recuam cerca de 4%.   Na China, os mercados fecharam mistos (CSI 300: -0,2%; HSI: +0,3%), após dados fracos de inflação. O CPI chinês subiu 0,2% em janeiro na comparação anual, abaixo da expectativa de 0,4%, reforçando sinais de pressão desinflacionária. O Kospi sul-coreano avançou 0,6%, assim como o Kosdaq (+0,6%). Os mercados japoneses permaneceram fechados devido a feriado.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a terça-feira em queda de 0,25%, influenciado pela abertura da curva de juros, em um dia marcado pela divulgação do IPCA de janeiro (0,33%), que apresentou resultado ligeiramente acima das projeções do mercado (0,32%) e, embora tenha mostrado uma leitura de desaceleração, ainda revelou pressão de componentes sensíveis à política monetária. A queda foi puxada sobretudo pelos Fundos de Fundos e pelos Fundos de Papel, que recuaram 0,38% e 0,37%, respectivamente.   Os Fundos de Tijolo também registraram desempenho negativo, com retração de 0,23%, influenciada principalmente pelos Fundos de Lajes Corporativas, que caíram 0,64%. Os Fundos de Shoppings (-0,07%) e os Fundos de Ativos Logísticos (-0,19%) igualmente encerraram o pregão no campo negativo.   Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se RBFM11 (+2,9%), VINO11 (+2,8%) e SNFF11 (+2,7%). No campo negativo, as principais baixas foram PVBI11 (-2,6%), BBIG11 (-2,4%) e TOPP11 (-2,0%).   Economia   No Brasil, o IPCA avançou 0,33% em janeiro comparado com dezembro, em linha com as expectativas (XP: 0,33%; Mercado: 0,32%). Com isso, a inflação acumulada em 12 meses subiu de 4,26% para 4,44%. Por sua vez, a média dos núcleos de inflação aumentou 0,45% em janeiro, com a taxa acumulada em 12 meses cedendo de 4,63% para 4,47%, o menor patamar desde janeiro de 2025. Os resultados do IPCA de janeiro reforçaram nossa visão de que a inflação de curto prazo seguirá bem-comportada. Logo, acreditamos que o Copom iniciará um ciclo de flexibilização monetária em março, reduzindo a taxa Selic em 0,50 p.p. (de 15,00% para 14,50%). Prevemos inflação de 3,8% em 2026, após 4,3% em 2025. Para uma análise completa sobre o IPCA de janeiro, clique aqui.   Na China, o índice de preços ao consumidor (CPI, na sigla em inglês) subiu 0,2% em janeiro ante dezembro, ligeiramente abaixo da expectativa de mercado (0,3%). Com isso, a inflação ao consumidor acumulada em 12 meses cedeu de 0,8% - o maior nível em quase três anos - para apenas 0,2%. Por sua vez, o índice de preços ao produtor (PPI) permaneceu em terreno deflacionário, ao passar de -1,9% em dezembro para -1,4% em janeiro. A demanda doméstica na China segue fraca, sobretudo em função da crise no setor de construção e da baixa confiança do consumidor.    Hoje, destaque para a divulgação do relatório Nonfarm Payroll, que traz as principais estatísticas sobre o mercado de trabalho dos Estados Unidos. A projeção de mercado indica criação líquida de 65 mil empregos em janeiro, após a adição de 50 mil em dezembro. A taxa de desemprego deve continuar em 4,4%, enquanto o rendimento médio por hora deve mostrar elevação de 0,3% no mês e 3,7% em termos anuais.    O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. Núcleo da inflação brasileira no menor patamar em 12 meses; Relatório de emprego nos Estados Unidos no centro das atenções hoje COMMODITIES:     1. Agro, Alimentos e Bebidas – Data Expert | Análise do WASDE – Fev/26 EMPRESAS:     1. Suzano (SUZB3): Volumes fortes impulsionando o EBITDA-beat; resultados 4T25   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa ESTRATÉGIA:     1. MSCI Brazil: rebalanceamento de fevereiro de 2026    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1. 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