Morning Call | Ata do Copom e balanços nos EUA na agenda da semana

XP Research 02 de fevereiro de 2026 Morning Call Ata do Copom e balanços nos EUA na agenda da semana  Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify       Ibovespa  O Ibovespa encerrou a semana em alta de 1,4% em reais e 2,1% em dólares, aos 181.364 pontos, renovando máximas históricas e ultrapassando pela primeira vez a marca dos 180 mil pontos. O índice fechou janeiro em um forte rali, avançando 12,6% em reais e 17,4% em dólares. Raízen (RAIZ4, +27,2%) foi o principal destaque positivo da semana. Nosso time setorial de Agronegócio avalia que o movimento foi majoritariamente técnico, com destaque para o fechamento de posições vendidas, dado que o short interestdo papel havia atingido máximas históricas recentemente. Na ponta negativa, Embraer (EMBJ3, -6,7%) apresentou desempenho inferior após a divulgação de seus resultados operacionais do 4T25.   Renda Fixa   No comparativo semanal, os juros futuros dos Estados Unidos tiveram desempenho misto, em meio à incerteza sobre a escolha do novo presidente do Fed, confirmada na sexta feira como Kevin Warsh, e ao risco de um novo shutdown. As Treasuries oscilaram, com a T Note de 2 anos em 3,53% ( 7 bps), a T Note de 10 anos em 4,25% (+2 bps) e o T Bond de 30 anos em 4,83% (+6 bps). No Brasil, a curva de juros recuou acompanhando o fluxo global que beneficiou emergentes e a sinalização do Copom de possível corte na próxima reunião. A NTN B 2030 fechou em 7,68% ao ano, ante 7,94%. Na curva nominal, o DI jan/27 encerrou em 13,49% ( 21 bps), o DI jan/29 em 12,73% ( 30 bps) e o DI jan/31 em 13,10% ( 25 bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta segunda-feira, os futuros nos Estados Unidos abrem em queda (S&P 500: -0,6%; Nasdaq 100: -0,9%), após a nomeação de Kevin Warsh como novo presidente do Federal Reserve por Donald Trump na última sexta-feira, assim como início de um novo shutdown no fim de semana, após congresso falhar em aprovar orçamento ou stopgap até o final de janeiro. Desta vez, o shutdown é parcial, e o speaker da Câmara, Johnson, declarou estar confiante que conseguirão passar um pacote fiscal até terça-feira. A temporada de resultados segue no centro das atenções ao longo dessa semana, na expectativa dos balanços das Big Techs Alphabet e Amazon. O índice pan-europeu opera em alta nessa manhã (Stoxx 600: +0,1%), e as bolsas chinesas fecharam em forte queda (HSI: -2,2%; CSI 300: -2,1%) após dados seguirem indicando dificuldades na frente da atividade econômica. Após forte rali recente, metais preciosos aprofundam a queda dos últimos dias nesta segunda-feiraNesta segunda-feira, os futuros nos Estados Unidos abrem em queda (S&P 500: -0,6%; Nasdaq 100: -0,9%), após a nomeação de Kevin Warsh como novo presidente do Federal Reserve por Donald Trump na última sexta-feira, assim como início de um novo shutdown no fim de semana, após congresso falhar em aprovar orçamento ou stopgap até o final de janeiro. Desta vez, o shutdown é parcial, e o speaker da Câmara, Johnson, declarou estar confiante que conseguirão passar um pacote fiscal até terça-feira. A temporada de resultados segue no centro das atenções ao longo dessa semana, na expectativa dos balanços das Big Techs Alphabet e Amazon. O índice pan-europeu opera em alta nessa manhã (Stoxx 600: +0,1%), e as bolsas chinesas fecharam em forte queda (HSI: -2,2%; CSI 300: -2,1%) após dados seguirem indicando dificuldades na frente da atividade econômica. Após forte rali recente, metais preciosos aprofundam a queda dos últimos dias nesta segunda-feira.   IFIX   O índice de fundos imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a semana com alta de 0,51%, impulsionado sobretudo pelo desempenho dos Fundos de Fundos (FOFs) e dos fundos de multiestratégia, que avançaram 2,52% e 1,53%, respectivamente, seguidos pelos fundos de lajes corporativas (+1,34%). No campo negativo, o destaque foi o segmento híbrido, que recuou 1,75%, pressionado principalmente pelo TGAR11, que caiu 15,7% na semana após a divulgação de seu relatório gerencial, revisando para baixo o guidance de distribuição para o primeiro semestre, agora projetado entre R$ 0,70 e R$ 1,00 por cota. Como resultado, o IFIX iniciou 2026 em território positivo, acumulando valorização de 2,27% em um mês marcado por sucessivas renovações das máximas históricas, encerrando o período em 3.860,99 pontos.   Economia   Nos Estados Unidos, Trump indicou Kevin Warsh para substituir Jerome Powell no comando do Fed, escolha que reduziu temores de politização da autoridade monetária. No Brasil, o mercado de trabalho permanece apertado. A PNAD Contínua apontou taxa de desemprego de 5,1% em dezembro, mantendo-se em níveis historicamente baixos. No campo fiscal, o setor público registrou déficit primário maior em 2025 e nova alta da dívida bruta do governo geral em relação a 2024. Na agenda internacional desta semana, destaque para indicadores de mercado de trabalho de janeiro nos Estados Unidos. Na Zona do Euro e no Reino Unido, haverá decisões de política monetária. Por fim, índices PMIs – sondagens empresariais que visam aferir o pulso da atividade econômica – serão divulgados em todas as principais economias. No Brasil, o foco se voltará para a ata do Copom. Além disso, o IBGE divulgará a produção industrial de dezembro. Por fim, as estatísticas da balança comercial de janeiro serão publicadas pelo MDIC.    O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. Trump indica novo presidente para o Fed   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1. Distribuidoras aposentam 88% do volume de CBIOs da meta estabelecida para 2025 | Café com ESG, 02/02             Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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