Morning Call | Investigação contra Powell eleva aversão a risco

XP Research 12 de janeiro de 2026   Morning Call Investigação contra Powell eleva aversão a risco   Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify     Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou a semana em alta de 1,8% em reais e 2,9% em dólares, aos 163.370 pontos. Cogna (COGN3, +17,6%) foi o principal destaque positivo da semana, após elevação de recomendação por um banco de investimentos. Na ponta negativa, C&A (CEAB3, -13,1%) recuou, refletindo o aumento das preocupações dos investidores com os resultados do 4T25, que serão divulgados em 24 de fevereiro.   Renda Fixa   No comparativo semanal, os juros futuros encerraram com abertura ao longo da curva e ganho de inclinação. Após uma semana de menor liquidez, a sexta-feira (09) trouxe dados econômicos relevantes nas esferas local (IPCA) e internacional (relatório de emprego dos EUA), que influenciaram os preços – vide abaixo. As taxas de juro real apresentaram leve alta, com os rendimentos das NTN-Bs com vencimento em 2030 fechando em 7,81% a.a. (vs. 7,68% na semana anterior). O DI jan/26 encerrou em 13,76% (+5,6bps no comparativo semanal); DI jan/27 em 13,07% (+2,2bps); DI jan/29 em 13,06% (+0,5bps); DI jan/31 em 13,35% (+2,2bps); DI jan/35 em 13,52% (+14,9bps). Nos EUA, rendimentos da T-Note de 2 anos terminaram o dia em 3,54% (+7bps vs. semana anterior); T-Note de 10 anos em 4,18% (- 1bps); T-Bond de 30 anos 4,82% (-4bps).  Mercados globais   Nesta segunda-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em queda (S&P 500: -0,7%; Nasdaq 100: -1,0%), após o Departamento de Justiça abrir uma investigação criminal contra o presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. A notícia elevou a aversão a risco, com investidores reduzindo exposição diante do temor de interferência política na política monetária e de um enfraquecimento da independência do Fed. Com o aumento das tensões institucionais, o índice de volatilidade (VIX) avançou, enquanto o ouro sobe cerca de 2%, refletindo busca por proteção. O mercado também se prepara para o início da temporada de resultados, com grandes bancos dos EUA divulgando balanços nos próximos dias. Na Europa, as bolsas operam em leve queda nesta segunda-feira (Stoxx 600: -0,2%), com investidores acompanhando tanto a pressão política sobre o Fed quanto os desdobramentos geopolíticos no Oriente Médio, especialmente no Irã. O noticiário corporativo traz movimentos pontuais positivos, como a alta de quase 8% da BE Semiconductor após forte crescimento nos pedidos, além de ganhos em Abivax, impulsionada por rumores de aquisição. Na China, os mercados fecharam em alta (CSI 300: +0,7%; HSI: +1,4%). O movimento ocorreu junto da queda dos preços do petróleo, que recuam com o mercado avaliando possíveis intervenções dos EUA no Irã e seus impactos limitados sobre a oferta global. O ouro renovou recordes, reforçando o ambiente defensivo global. No restante da Ásia, o Japão permaneceu fechado por feriado, e o iene se desvalorizou fortemente, atingindo mínima de um ano frente ao dólar. O destaque da região ficou para a Coreia do Sul, onde o Kospi renovou máximas históricas (+0,8%). IFIX   O IFIX registrou alta de 0,28% na semana, impulsionado principalmente pelos segmentos híbridos e FOFs, que avançaram 0,83% e 34%, respectivamente. Os fundos de papel registram alta de 0,20% na semana, enquanto os fundos de tijolo avançaram 0,12%, pressionados pelo segmento de logística, que apresentou queda de 0,32%, refletindo spreads mais comprimidos em relação ao padrão histórico, especialmente quando comparados aos segmentos de shoppings e lajes corporativas.  Economia   Os preços do ouro atingiram nível recorde acima de US$ 4.580 por onça, impulsionados por preocupações com a autonomia do Fed, banco central dos Estados Unidos, e tensões geopolíticas no Irã. Por fim, após 25 anos de negociações, a União Europeia aprovou provisoriamente o acordo comercial com o Mercosul. No Brasil, a inflação medida pelo IPCA subiu 0,33% em dezembro, em linha com as projeções, e fechou 2025 em 4,26%, abaixo do teto do intervalo de tolerância da meta (4,5%). Esse resultado confirma um cenário de desinflação gradual, mas com sinais mistos. Na agenda internacional desta semana, destaque para a divulgação dos índices de inflação ao consumidor (CPI) e ao produtor (PPI) dos Estados Unidos em dezembro. Ainda na economia americana, os agentes de mercado irão monitorar os dados de vendas varejistas de novembro e produção industrial de dezembro. No Brasil, as atenções estarão voltadas para indicadores de atividade econômica referentes a novembro. O IBGE divulgará as vendas varejistas (PMC) e as receitas de serviços (PMS). Já o Banco Central publicará o IBC-Br, uma proxy mensal do PIB.     O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!     ECONOMIA:   1.Acordo comercial entre União Europeia e Mercosul caminha para aprovação final   RENDA FIXA:  1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa ESTRATÉGIA:  1. Factor Pulse: o que esperar dos fatores em 2026?   ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:  1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG: 1.Acordo UE-Mercosul pode atrair investimentos para a cadeia de minerais críticos no Brasil | Café com ESG, 12/01 2. BYD ultrapassa Tesla em vendas de elétricos; BNDES avança na agenda de certificação de carbono | Brunch com ESG   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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