Morning Call | Emprego no Brasil e indicação para comando do Fed em foco

XP Research 30 de janeiro de 2026 Morning Call Emprego no Brasil e indicação para comando do Fed em foco    Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify       Ibovespa  O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de quinta-feira em queda de 0,8%, aos 183.134 pontos, interrompendo a sequência de recordes históricos de fechamento do índice. O dia começou em tom positivo, com os mercados locais reagindo à decisão do Copom, mas o movimento se inverteu ao longo da sessão, acompanhando o viés negativo dos mercados globais, que foram pressionados sobretudo pela reação ao resultado do 4T25 de Microsoft. Prio (PRIO3, +2,0%) foi o destaque positivo do dia, beneficiada pela alta dos preços do petróleo. Na ponta negativa, Suzano (SUZB3, -4,6%) recuou em mais um dia de apreciação do real, com o dólar fechando a R$ 5,19, movimento que tende a pressionar empresas exportadoras. Para o pregão de sexta-feira, o destaque da agenda internacional será a divulgação dos PMIs de manufatura e serviços referentes a janeiro nos Estados Unidos.   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros encerraram a quinta-feira (29) sem direcional único nos Estados Unidos. O movimento foi influenciado pelo ambiente de incertezas, diante do risco de shutdown com a proximidade do prazo final para aprovação de verbas nesta sexta-feira, além do adiamento da indicação do próximo presidente do banco central (Fed) por Donald Trump. Nesse contexto, as Treasuries oscilaram: os títulos de 2 anos fecharam em 3,6% (+2 bps); os de 10 anos, em 4,23% (-2 bps); e os de 30 anos, em 4,86% (0 bps). No Brasil, as taxas de juros recuaram pelo sexto pregão seguido, após a sinalização do Copom, na quarta-feira (28), sobre a possibilidade de início da flexibilização monetária na próxima reunião. Além disso, o movimento foi impulsionado pelos dados do Caged de dezembro, que vieram mais fracos do que o esperado (‑618,2 mil vs. consenso Bloomberg ‑472,4 mil; XP (P) ‑505 mil). O DI jan/27 fechou a 13,48% (-4 bps), o DI jan/29 a 12,70% (-9 bps) e o DI jan/31 a 13,06% (-4 bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta sexta-feira, os futuros nos Estados Unidos abrem em queda (S&P 500: -0,8%; Nasdaq 100: -0,9%), diante da expectativa de nomeação de um novo presidente do Federal Reserve por Donald Trump nesta manhã, com apostas concentradas em Kevin Warsh. Os mercados permanecem na temporada de resultados, na expectativa do balanço de ExxonMobil para o 4T25, e das Big Techs Amazon e Alphabet na próxima semana. Ontem, Apple divulgou resultados melhores que o esperado com surpresa na venda de iPhones e na receita proveniente da China. O índice pan-europeu opera em alta nessa manhã (Stoxx 600: +0,4%), e as bolsas chinesas fecharam em forte queda (HSI:-2,1%; CSI 300: -1,0%).    IFIX   O IFIX encerrou o pregão de quinta‑feira em queda de 0,14%, em movimento de correção após as altas consecutivas, mesmo diante do fechamento da curva de juros influenciado pela crescente possibilidade de início da flexibilização monetária na reunião de março. No desempenho setorial, os Fundos de Tijolo recuaram 0,11%, enquanto os Fundos de Papel registraram queda de 0,18%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram‑se OUJP11 (+3,1%), PVBI11 (+1,7%) e BBIG11 (+1,4%). No campo negativo, as principais baixas foram URPR11 (-4,0%), HSLG11 (-3,2%) e DEVA11 (-2,2%).   Economia   O Senado dos Estados Unidos bloqueou o avanço de um amplo pacote de financiamento do governo, aumentando o risco de um shutdown. Negociações de última hora discutem um arranjo temporário para financiar as demais agências até setembro. Sobre o Fed (banco central), Trump deve anunciar seu indicado ainda hoje. No Brasil, o relatório do CAGED registrou destruição líquida de 618,2 mil vagas formais em dezembro, resultado significativamente pior do que o esperado. Porém, o cenário de taxa de desemprego historicamente baixa e salários em alta permanece. Na agenda internacional, os destaques ficam por conta da divulgação do índice de preços ao produtor (PPI) nos Estados Unidos e do PMI da China — indicadores de sondagem empresarial que ajudam a captar o pulso da atividade econômica. No Brasil, o destaque será a PNAD de dezembro, que deve seguir apontando a taxa de desemprego na mínima histórica, reforçando o diagnóstico de um mercado de trabalho aquecido. No campo fiscal, o governo divulgará o resultado do setor público consolidado, em que esperamos superávit de R$ 4,5 bilhões no mês, mas déficit de R$ 56,2 bilhões em 2025.     O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. Donald Trump deve anunciar seu candidato para presidir Fed   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1. Investimento global em energia limpa supera combustíveis fósseis pelo o 2º ano consecutivo | Café com ESG, 30/01             Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. XP Investimentos is not liable for any decisions made by the customer based on this report. 2) This report was prepared considering the product risk classification in order to generate allocation results for each investor profile.   3) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers.  No part of analyst(s) compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. 4) The signatory of this report declare that the recommendations reflect solely and exclusively their personal analyses and opinions, which have been produced independently, including in relation to XP Investimentos and which are subject to modifications without notice due to changes in market conditions, and that their remuneration are indirectly affected by revenue from business and financial transactions carried out by XP Investimentos.   5) The analyst responsible for the content of this report and the compliance with CVM Resolution 20/2021 is indicated above, and, in the event of an indication of another analyst in the report, the person responsible will be the first accredited analyst to be mentioned in Report.   6) XP Investimentos’ analysts are obligated to comply with all the rules laid down in the APIMEC’s conduct code for the securities analyst and XP Investimentos’ analyst of securities conduct policy.   7) Customer service is carried out by XP Investimentos employees or by autonomous investment agents who perform their activities through XP, in accordance with CVM Resolution 178/2023, which are registered in the national association of brokers and distributors of securities (“ANCORD”). The autonomous agent of investment may not provide consulting, administration or management of customer net worth, and must act as an intermediary and request prior authorization from the client for the realization of any operation in the capital market.   8) For the purpose of verifying the adequacy of the investor's profile to the investment services and products offered by XP Investimentos, we use the methodology of adequacy of products by portfolio, in accordance with the ANBIMA Rules and Procedures of Suitability No. 01 and the ANBIMA Code of Regulation and Best Practices for Distribution of Investment Products. This methodology consists of assigning a maximum risk score for each investor profile (conservative, moderate and aggressive), as well as a risk score for each of the products offered by XP Investimentos, so that all customers can have access to all products, provided that within the amounts and limits of the risk score defined for their profile. Before applying to the products and/or contracting the services subject to this material, it is important that you verify that your current risk score includes the application in the products and/or the contracting of the services in question, as well as whether there are limitations of volume, concentration and/or quantity for the desired application. You can consult this information directly at the time of transmission of your order or by consulting the overall risk of your wallet on the portfolio screen (Risk View).f your current risk score does not support the desired application/contract, or if there are limitations in relation to the amount and/or financial volume for said application/contracting, this means that, based on the current composition of your portfolio, this application/contract is not appropriate to your profile. If you have questions about the process of suiting the products offered by XP Investimentos to your investor profile, please refer to the FAQ. Market conditions, climate change and the macroeconomic scenario can affect investment performance. 9) The profitability of financial products may present variations and their price or value may increase or decrease in a short period of time. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance disclosed is not net of any applicable taxes. The information present in this material is based on simulations and the actual results may be significantly different. 10) This report is intended exclusively for to the XP Investimentos’ network, including independent XP agents and XP customers, and may also be released on XP’s website. It is prohibited to reproduce or redistribute this report to any person, in whole or in part, whatever the purpose, without the prior express consent of XP Investimentos. 11) XP Investimentos’ ombudsman has the mission to serve as a contact channel whenever customers who do not feel satisfied with the solutions given by the company to their problems. The contact can be made via telephone 0800 722 3710  if you are in Brazil or via ombudsman form if you are in other localities: ttps://institucional.xpi.com.br/ouvidoria.aspx/.   12) The cost of the transactions billing policies are defined in the operational cost tables which are made available on XP Investimentos website: www.xpi.com.br. 13) XP Investimentos is exempt from any liability for any damages, direct or indirect, that come from the use of this report or its contents.   14) Technical analysis and fundamental analysis follow different methodologies. Technical analysis is performed following concepts such as trends, support, resistance, candles, volume, and moving averages, amongst others. Fundamental analysis uses as information the results disseminated by the issuing companies and their projections. In this way, the opinions of fundamental analysts, who seek the best returns given the market conditions, the macroeconomic scenario and the specific events of the company and the sector, may differ from the opinions of technical analysts, which aim to Identify the most likely movements on asset prices, using "stops" limit possible losses.   15) Equity investments available are portion a company’s capital that is traded on the market. Stock is a variable financial investment (i.e. an investment in which profitability is not pre-established and varies depending on market quotations). Investment in stock is a high-risk investment and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no statement or warranty, expressed or implied, is made in this material in relation to future performance. Market conditions, macroeconomic scenario, company and sector specific events can affect investment performance and may even result in significant asset losses. The recommended duration for equity investments is medium-long term. There is no guarantee of investment return for customers’ investments in stock.   16) Investment in options is the purchase or sale rights of a good shall be negotiated at a price fixed at a future date, and the purchaser of the negotiated duty should pay a premium to the seller as in a secure agreement. Operations with these derivatives are considered very high risk for presenting high risk and return relationships and some positions present the possibility of losses higher than the capital invested. The recommended duration for the investment is short-term and the customer's assets are not guaranteed in this type of product.   17) Investment in terms are contracts for the purchase or sale of a certain number of shares at a fixed price for settlement within a specified period. The term of the contract is freely chosen by the investors, complying with the minimum period of 16 days and a maximum of 999 days. The price will be the value of the added share of a portion corresponding to the interest-which are set freely on the market, depending on the term of the contract. Every transaction in the term requires a guarantee deposit. These guarantees are provided in two forms: coverage or margin. 18) Investments in futures markets are subject to significant loss of principal. a commodity is an object or price determinant of a future contract or other derivative instrument, which may substantiate an index, a fee, a movable value or a physical product.  Commodities are considered high risk investments, which include the possibility of price fluctuation due to the use of financial leverage. The recommended duration for commodity investments is short-term and customers’ assets are not guaranteed in this type of product. Market conditions and the macroeconomic scenario can affect the performance investments.   19) This institution is adhering ANBIMA Code of Regulation and best practices for the distribution activity of retail investment products. 20) XP Investments US, LLC, a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, has assumed responsibility for this research for purposes of U.S. law.  All transactions arising from this research should be directed to XP Investments US, LLC, at +1 646-664-0525. 21) XP Investimentos (a) managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months, or (b) received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months; or (c) expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next 3 months.