Nova projeção para o Ibovespa em 2026 | Expert Drops

XP Research Na nova edição do Raio-XP, lançamos luz sobre o rali recente do mercado de ações no Brasil e os motivos que levaram à continuidade de um bull market tão intenso – e silencioso – a ponto de fazer o desempenho do Brasil se dissociar em relação a outros mercados. Ainda, aproveitamos para elevar o valor justo do Ibovespa para 2026, de 170.000 a 185.000 pontos (link).   E para você aproveitar a força renovada da Bolsa nessa reta final do ano, apresentamos as nossas principais recomendações em ações, divididas em blue chips, small caps e dividendos, e outras classes de investimento (link).   Além disso, nosso time de estrategistas preparou um estudo especial sobre o impacto da aprovação da Reforma do Imposto de Renda nos anúncios de dividendos das empresas. Considerando três cenários que ajudaram a identificar as empresas com capacidade de antecipar pagamentos de dividendos, estima-se que existem entre R$ 42-85 bilhões em dividendos adicionais a serem anunciados nas próximas semanas (link).   Confira esses e outros assuntos nesta edição da Expert Drops. Toda semana, trazemos recomendações e análises na medida certa para você investir melhor. Conte conosco e até a semana que vem!   DESTAQUES   Raio-XP: o bull market silencioso no Brasil segue ganhando força   Em novembro, o Brasil seguiu em seu bull market intenso — e silencioso — à medida que fatores domésticos começaram a exercer um papel mais relevante. Elevamos nosso valor justo para o Ibovespa no fim de 2026 para 185 mil pontos (antes 170 mil), dado o início da queda das taxas de juros reais de longo prazo e a expectativa de nova expansão de múltiplos em 2026. Acesse a nova edição do Raio-XP aqui.   Carteiras recomendadas – Dezembro de 2025   Atualizamos nossas carteiras recomendadas para o último mês do ano. Saiba como e onde investir de acordo com a classe de investimento desejada (ações brasileiras e globais, renda fixa, fundos listados) e perfil de investidor. Confira todas as recomendações nesse link.   Reforma do IR: pagamento de dividendos extraordinários pode ser de até R$ 85 bilhões   A aprovação da Reforma do Imposto de Renda criou um forte incentivo para que as companhias brasileiras antecipem anúncios de dividendos antes do fim de 2025. Nomes como Allos (ALOS3), Itaú (ITUB4) e Vale (VALE3) já o fizeram, totalizando R$ 42,2 bilhões. Neste relatório, consideramos três cenários para identificar quais empresas têm capacidade de antecipar pagamentos de dividendos. Confira aqui.   O novo plano de negócios da Petrobras   A Petrobras divulgou seu novo plano de negócios quinquenal (2026-2030), como tradicionalmente faz no fim de cada ano. O plano ficou amplamente em linha com nossas estimativas, apresentando uma curva de produção mais alta e investimentos mais baixos em relação ao plano de negócios anterior (2025-2029). Mesmo que esteja alinhado com nossas estimativas, consideramos o novo plano positivo, pois seu foco na austeridade mitiga o risco de possíveis cenários negativos. Veja a nossa análise completa.   BRZ Infra Portos: valuation atrativo e perspectivas positivas no setor portuário   Iniciamos a cobertura do BRZP11 com recomendação de compra e preço-alvo de R$ 271,00 por cota para 2026. Acreditamos que este FIP-IE, com participação no Porto Itapoá, oferece uma oportunidade atrativa de investimento em infraestrutura no Brasil, sustentada por três pilares: (i) posicionamento estratégico no ciclo de investimento; (ii) cenário competitivo favorável; e (iii) valuation atrativo. Acesse aqui a tese.   MAIS DESTAQUES   Para onde caminham os juros no Brasil, com Gabriel Galípolo   Gabriel Galípolo, presidente do Banco Central do Brasil, foi um dos convidados do XP Fórum Político Macro 2025, evento que aconteceu nesta segunda-feira (1º) e que contou com a presença de clientes parceiros da XP. Galípolo discutiu, dentre outras coisas, os dados recentes da atividade econômica doméstica e a condução da política monetária no país. Reunimos os destaques do painel.   Vale: flexibilidade do portfólio de minério de ferro e crescimento acelerado do cobre   A Vale realizou seu Investor Day 2025, destacando seu compromisso em entregar projetos-chave, aumentar sua rentabilidade operacional e impulsionar o crescimento da produção com retornos marginalmente acretivos em cobre. Embora os recentes desenvolvimentos bottom-up tenham fortalecido a história das ações da Vale, nossa análise de correlação entre commodities e ações indica que o gap de valuation vs. minério de ferro foi fechado. Confira os principais pontos do evento.   O Mês dos Mercados Globais – Navegando pela volatilidade   Os mercados globais se encaminham para encerrar o ano em uma nota positiva, com forte contribuição proveniente da temática de inteligência artificial. No entanto, questionamentos ao ritmo de crescimento projetado para empresas de IA, nível de investimentos e velocidade de retorno vieram acompanhadas de avanços em novas tecnologias, colocando Google como potencial competidor da Nvidia na corrida pelo desenvolvimento dessa nova tecnologia e provocando intensa volatilidade. Confira mais destaques do nosso acompanhamento mensal.   Calendário de dividendos – Dezembro de 2025   Todo mês, divulgamos a lista de ações e fundos imobiliários com previsão de pagamentos de proventos. Confira os ativos e suas respectivas datas de distribuição de dividendos e/ou juros sobre capital próprio (JCP): acesse o calendário de ações (clique aqui) e de FIIs (clique aqui).   AGENDA   Segunda-feira, 8 de dezembro   Brasil 8:25 Boletim Focus   Terça-feira, 9 de dezembro   Brasil 9:00 PIM: Produção Industrial Regional   Estados Unidos 12:00 JOLTs   China 22:30 PPI e CPI   Quarta-feira, 10 de dezembro   Brasil 9:00 IPCA 18:30 Anúncio do Copom   Estados Unidos 16:00 Anúncio do FOMC 16:00 Resultado Fiscal Mensal 16:30 Discurso de Jerome Powell   Quinta-feira, 11 de dezembro   Brasil 9:00 PMC: Vendas no Varejo   Estados Unidos 10:30 PPI   Sexta-feira, 12 de dezembro   Brasil 9:00 PMS: Volume de Serviços   APRENDA A INVESTIR   Bull Market? Mercado em alta ou em que os participantes esperam alta dos preços e queda dos yields (oposto de bear market).   Valuation? Ferramenta de avaliação de uma empresa que tem o objetivo de determinar o seu valor de forma justa no mercado, levando em conta o seu potencial, tudo colocado em termos financeiros.    VÍDEOS   Os desafios da POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA no BRASIL e nos EUA | Econocast #120 https://youtu.be/Cf9GRI27qx0   GABRIEL GALÍPOLO, do BANCO CENTRAL: reunião com investidores em São Paulo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHWTqr_qjnY   Confira todas as nossas análises e invista melhor Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. XP Investimentos is not liable for any decisions made by the customer based on this report. 2) This report was prepared considering the product risk classification in order to generate allocation results for each investor profile.   3) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers.  No part of analyst(s) compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. 4) The signatory of this report declare that the recommendations reflect solely and exclusively their personal analyses and opinions, which have been produced independently, including in relation to XP Investimentos and which are subject to modifications without notice due to changes in market conditions, and that their remuneration are indirectly affected by revenue from business and financial transactions carried out by XP Investimentos.   5) The analyst responsible for the content of this report and the compliance with CVM Resolution 20/2021 is indicated above, and, in the event of an indication of another analyst in the report, the person responsible will be the first accredited analyst to be mentioned in Report.   6) XP Investimentos’ analysts are obligated to comply with all the rules laid down in the APIMEC’s conduct code for the securities analyst and XP Investimentos’ analyst of securities conduct policy.   7) Customer service is carried out by XP Investimentos employees or by autonomous investment agents who perform their activities through XP, in accordance with CVM Resolution 178/2023, which are registered in the national association of brokers and distributors of securities (“ANCORD”). The autonomous agent of investment may not provide consulting, administration or management of customer net worth, and must act as an intermediary and request prior authorization from the client for the realization of any operation in the capital market.   8) For the purpose of verifying the adequacy of the investor's profile to the investment services and products offered by XP Investimentos, we use the methodology of adequacy of products by portfolio, in accordance with the ANBIMA Rules and Procedures of Suitability No. 01 and the ANBIMA Code of Regulation and Best Practices for Distribution of Investment Products. This methodology consists of assigning a maximum risk score for each investor profile (conservative, moderate and aggressive), as well as a risk score for each of the products offered by XP Investimentos, so that all customers can have access to all products, provided that within the amounts and limits of the risk score defined for their profile. Before applying to the products and/or contracting the services subject to this material, it is important that you verify that your current risk score includes the application in the products and/or the contracting of the services in question, as well as whether there are limitations of volume, concentration and/or quantity for the desired application. You can consult this information directly at the time of transmission of your order or by consulting the overall risk of your wallet on the portfolio screen (Risk View).f your current risk score does not support the desired application/contract, or if there are limitations in relation to the amount and/or financial volume for said application/contracting, this means that, based on the current composition of your portfolio, this application/contract is not appropriate to your profile. If you have questions about the process of suiting the products offered by XP Investimentos to your investor profile, please refer to the FAQ. Market conditions, climate change and the macroeconomic scenario can affect investment performance. 9) The profitability of financial products may present variations and their price or value may increase or decrease in a short period of time. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance disclosed is not net of any applicable taxes. The information present in this material is based on simulations and the actual results may be significantly different. 10) This report is intended exclusively for to the XP Investimentos’ network, including independent XP agents and XP customers, and may also be released on XP’s website. It is prohibited to reproduce or redistribute this report to any person, in whole or in part, whatever the purpose, without the prior express consent of XP Investimentos. 11) XP Investimentos’ ombudsman has the mission to serve as a contact channel whenever customers who do not feel satisfied with the solutions given by the company to their problems. The contact can be made via telephone 0800 722 3710  if you are in Brazil or via ombudsman form if you are in other localities: ttps://institucional.xpi.com.br/ouvidoria.aspx/.   12) The cost of the transactions billing policies are defined in the operational cost tables which are made available on XP Investimentos website: www.xpi.com.br. 13) XP Investimentos is exempt from any liability for any damages, direct or indirect, that come from the use of this report or its contents.   14) Technical analysis and fundamental analysis follow different methodologies. Technical analysis is performed following concepts such as trends, support, resistance, candles, volume, and moving averages, amongst others. Fundamental analysis uses as information the results disseminated by the issuing companies and their projections. In this way, the opinions of fundamental analysts, who seek the best returns given the market conditions, the macroeconomic scenario and the specific events of the company and the sector, may differ from the opinions of technical analysts, which aim to Identify the most likely movements on asset prices, using "stops" limit possible losses.   15) Equity investments available are portion a company’s capital that is traded on the market. Stock is a variable financial investment (i.e. an investment in which profitability is not pre-established and varies depending on market quotations). Investment in stock is a high-risk investment and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no statement or warranty, expressed or implied, is made in this material in relation to future performance. Market conditions, macroeconomic scenario, company and sector specific events can affect investment performance and may even result in significant asset losses. The recommended duration for equity investments is medium-long term. There is no guarantee of investment return for customers’ investments in stock.   16) Investment in options is the purchase or sale rights of a good shall be negotiated at a price fixed at a future date, and the purchaser of the negotiated duty should pay a premium to the seller as in a secure agreement. Operations with these derivatives are considered very high risk for presenting high risk and return relationships and some positions present the possibility of losses higher than the capital invested. The recommended duration for the investment is short-term and the customer's assets are not guaranteed in this type of product.   17) Investment in terms are contracts for the purchase or sale of a certain number of shares at a fixed price for settlement within a specified period. The term of the contract is freely chosen by the investors, complying with the minimum period of 16 days and a maximum of 999 days. The price will be the value of the added share of a portion corresponding to the interest-which are set freely on the market, depending on the term of the contract. Every transaction in the term requires a guarantee deposit. These guarantees are provided in two forms: coverage or margin. 18) Investments in futures markets are subject to significant loss of principal. a commodity is an object or price determinant of a future contract or other derivative instrument, which may substantiate an index, a fee, a movable value or a physical product.  Commodities are considered high risk investments, which include the possibility of price fluctuation due to the use of financial leverage. The recommended duration for commodity investments is short-term and customers’ assets are not guaranteed in this type of product. Market conditions and the macroeconomic scenario can affect the performance investments.   19) This institution is adhering ANBIMA Code of Regulation and best practices for the distribution activity of retail investment products. 20) XP Investments US, LLC, a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, has assumed responsibility for this research for purposes of U.S. law.  All transactions arising from this research should be directed to XP Investments US, LLC, at +1 646-664-0525. 21) XP Investimentos (a) managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months, or (b) received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months; or (c) expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next 3 months.