Morning Call | PIB do 3º trimestre em foco nesta quinta

XP Research 4 de dezembro de 2025 Morning Call PIB do 3º trimestre em foco nesta quinta Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou a quarta-feira em alta de 0,4%, aos 161.755 pontos, acompanhando o movimento positivo dos mercados globais (S%P 500, +0,3%; Nasdaq, +0,2%). As ações da Usiminas (USIM5, +7,6%) subiram mesmo com os preços do minério de ferro permanecendo praticamente estáveis, em meio a um momento positivo para o setor. Na ponta negativa, Bradesco (BBDC4, -2,8%) recuou, acumulando queda de 3,3% em dezembro até agora.  Nesta quinta-feira, destaque para a divulgação do PIB do 3T25 no Brasil.  Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros apresentaram leve abertura ao longo da curva nesta quarta-feira, em movimento de correção. No Brasil, com a agenda doméstica mais esvaziada, os juros encerraram em alta moderada. O DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,9% (+0,3bp vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 13,61% (+2,6bps); DI jan/29 em 12,72% (+3,9bps); DI jan/31 em 12,94% (+2,9bps). Já nos EUA, as Treasuries reagiram ao relatório ADP, que apontou redução de 32 mil vagas no setor privado em novembro, contrariando a projeção de criação de 40 mil postos. O resultado reforça as expectativas predominantes de que Fed deverá cortar a taxa básica em 25 bps na reunião da próxima quarta-feira. Com isso, os rendimentos de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,51% (- 1,84bps vs. pregão anterior); enquanto os de dez anos em 4,08% (- 0,06bp). Mercados globais   Nesta quinta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam estáveis (S&P 500: +0,1%; Nasdaq 100: 0,%) após as bolsas fecharem em alta na véspera, apoiadas pelo fortalecimento das apostas em corte de juros em dezembro. O movimento seguiu a surpresa baixista do relatório de empregos da ADP, que mostrou queda inesperada nas contratações privadas em novembro e reforçou a expectativa de que o Fed reduza juros na reunião de 10 de dezembro. No pós-mercado, Salesforce avançou mais de 5% após divulgar guidance de receita acima do esperado. O setor de tecnologia, porém, segue como o principal ponto de cautela, com Microsoft, Nvidia e Broadcom pressionando o S&P 500 após relatos envolvendo metas de vendas de IA. Na Europa, as bolsas operam em alta (Stoxx 600: +0,3%) acompanhando o tom positivo global. As ações da Inditex, dona da Zara, estendem o avanço da véspera e sobem 2% após fortes resultados trimestrais. No setor automotivo, Stellantis sobe cerca de 3%, após upgrade do UBS para "compra", apoiado na expectativa de recuperação de participação de mercado e impacto positivo de padrões mais flexíveis de emissões nos EUA. Entre os destaques corporativos, Volvo Cars reportou queda de 10% nas vendas de novembro, enquanto Hugo Boss recua após corte de guidance. Na China, os mercados fecharam em alta (CSI 300: +0,3%; HSI: +0,7%), impulsionados pela perspectiva de corte de juros nos EUA e pelo enfraquecimento do mercado de trabalho americano. No Japão, o Nikkei 225 disparou 2,3%, liderado por empresas industriais e de tecnologia, com destaque para Fanuc, SoftBank e Lasertec. Na Coreia do Sul, o Kospi recuou 0,2%. IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a quarta-feira com leve queda de 0,03%, influenciado pela leve abertura da curva de juros. O recuo foi puxado principalmente pelos fundos de recebíveis (-0,07%). Em contrapartida, os fundos de tijolo registraram alta marginal de 0,03%, impulsionados pelo bom desempenho das lajes corporativas (+0,44%). Entre as maiores valorizações do dia, destacaram-se BCIA11 (+1,5%), HABT11 (+1,4%) e CPSH11 (+1,2%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram RBVA11 (-1,6%), JSCR11 (-1,4%) e MCRE11 (-1,3%). Economia No Brasil, o destaque é a divulgação do PIB do 3º trimestre, que deve sinalizar arrefecimento da atividade. Projetamos crescimento de 0,2% em relação ao 2° trimestre, após alta de 0,4% no período anterior. O setor de Serviços deve permanecer como protagonista. Esperamos a 21ª expansão consecutiva. A Indústria tende a apresentar ganho modesto, enquanto o enfraquecimento dos efeitos da safra recorde de grãos deve levar o componente de Agropecuária para território negativo. O relatório ADP surpreendeu negativamente ao indicar que o setor privado dos Estados Unidos eliminou 32 mil vagas em novembro, contrariando as expectativas de criação de empregos. Um corte de 0,25 p.p. continua sendo quase que totalmente precificado pelo mercado, diante da menor pressão inflacionária e do risco de enfraquecimento da atividade econômica. Na agenda internacional, o destaque fica para os pedidos de seguro-desemprego nos Estados Unidos.   O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:   1.PIB deve crescer 0,2% no terceiro trimestre com protagonismo do setor de Serviços RENDA FIXA:  1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa EMPRESAS: 1.AmBev (ABEV3) | Forte volume de produção do Grupo Petrópolis; O Grupo Petrópolis está de volta ao jogo? 2.Varejo XP: Os descontos já não são a única arma da Black Friday ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:  1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias 2.Carteira Recomendada XP FIIs – Renda Total – Dezembro/25   ESG: 1.TikTok anuncia investimento de R$ 200 bilhões em data center movido a energia renovável | Café com ESG, 04/12    Clique aqui para acessar o relatório Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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