Morning Call | Eleições no Chile, atividade econômica da China e IBC-Br no radar dos mercados hoje

XP Research 15 de Dezembro de 2025     Morning Call | Eleições no Chile, atividade econômica da China e IBC-Br no radar dos mercados hoje Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify   Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou a última semana em alta de 2,2% em reais e 2,4% em dólares, aos 160.766 pontos. Entre os destaques positivos da semana, IRB (IRBR3, +12,8%) avançou após elevação de recomendação por um banco de investimentos. Na ponta negativa, Magazine Luiza (MGLU3, -6,1%) passou por um movimento de correção, interrompendo a tendência de alta observada desde meados de outubro. Clique aqui para acessar o Resumo Semanal da Bolsa.   Renda Fixa   No comparativo semanal, os juros futuros encerraram com fechamento ao longo da curva, refletindo a reação do mercado ao tom mais conservador do comunicado do Copom. No entanto, as taxas de juro real apresentaram leve alta, com os rendimentos das NTN-Bs com vencimento em 2030 terminando em 7,76% a.a. (vs. 7,56% na semana anterior). O DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,9% (-0,1 bps no comparativo semanal); DI jan/27 em 13,64% (-15,5 bps); DI jan/29 em 13,02% (-18 bps); DI jan/31 em 13,32% (-13 bps); DI jan/35 em 13,44% (-12,5 bps). Nos EUA, rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,52% (-3,81 bps vs. pregão anterior), enquanto os de 10 anos em 4,18% (+4,65 bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta segunda-feira (15), os futuros nos EUA operam em alta (S&P 500: +0,5%; Nasdaq 100: +0,4%), após uma semana marcada por rotação para fora do setor de tecnologia. O S&P 500 e o Nasdaq recuaram 0,6% e 1,7% na semana passada, respectivamente, pressionados pelo sell-off em nomes ligados à inteligência artificial. Oracle caiu 12,7% na semana e Broadcom recuou mais de 7%, reforçando o movimento de realização em empresas com alto valuation. O mercado entra na semana atento a uma bateria de dados econômicos nos EUA, com destaque para payroll de novembro e vendas no varejo de outubro na terça-feira, além do CPI de novembro na quinta. Na Europa, as bolsas operam em alta (Stoxx 600: +0,7%), em meio ao início de uma sequência de decisões de política monetária. O foco recai sobre a reunião do Banco Central Europeu na quinta-feira, quando a autoridade monetária deve manter os juros em 2%. Investidores também acompanham dados de inflação na Zona do Euro e no Reino Unido, além das discussões políticas sobre o financiamento à Ucrânia, incluindo o uso de ativos russos congelados. Na China, os mercados fecharam em queda (CSI 300: -0,6%; HSI: -0,8%), refletindo dados econômicos mais fracos do que o esperado. As vendas no varejo cresceram apenas 1,3% em novembro, bem abaixo das expectativas, enquanto a produção industrial avançou 4,8%, também aquém do consenso. Na Ásia mais ampla, o movimento foi majoritariamente negativo, refletindo dúvidas sobre a sustentabilidade do ciclo de crescimento ligado à inteligência artificial.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) registrou alta de 0,43% na semana, influenciado pelo movimento de fechamento da curva de juros. Entre os principais segmentos, os FIIs de papel que compõem o índice apresentaram um desempenho de +0,73%, enquanto os fundos de tijolo registraram resultado de +0,22%. Entre as maiores altas da semana, destacaram-se URPR11 (+9,9%), BROF11 (+4,7%) e BRCR11 (+4,1%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram VINO11 (-1,9%), RBRR11 (-1,5%) e HCTR11 (-1,3%).    Economia   Na China, a atividade econômica perdeu força em novembro. A desaceleração reflete o fim do efeito dos subsídios ao consumo e a persistente crise imobiliária, além da retração nos investimentos. Esse cenário reforça o desafio para 2026, quando Pequim pretende manter a meta de crescimento em torno de 5%. No Chile, José Antonio Kast, candidato de direita, foi eleito presidente com mais de 58% dos votos. No Brasil, o setor de serviços cresceu pelo nono mês consecutivo. Acreditamos que este setor continuará puxando a economia doméstica. O aumento da renda real do trabalho e medidas de estímulo recentemente anunciadas devem mantê-lo em trajetória ascendente. Na agenda internacional desta semana, destaque para os dados de inflação ao consumidor (CPI) e o relatório de emprego Nonfarm Payroll. Os bancos centrais do Japão, do Reino Unido e da Zona do Euro decidirão sobre suas taxas de juros. Por fim, índices PMI de dezembro serão conhecidos para as principais economias ocidentais. No Brasil, o destaque fica para a ata da última reunião do Copom e o Relatório de Política Monetária (RPM), além do IBC-Br de outubro.             O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     Atividade econômica chinesa perde força em novembro EMPRESAS:     1.Engie Brasil (EGIE3): Primeiro Passo da Transferência de Jirau Começou 2.Saldo de portabilidade | Um cisne roxo em formação?    ESG:   Investimentos em fundos sustentáveis avançam e atingem R$ 52 bilhões no Brasil | Café com ESG, 15/12    Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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