Morning Call | Bolsas operam em alta na Europa; no Brasil, dados de serviços em destaque

XP Research 12 de Dezembro de 2025     Morning Call | Bolsas operam em alta na Europa; no Brasil, dados de serviços em destaque   Pesquisa mensal de serviços no Brasil é um dos temas de maior destaque nesta sexta-feira, 12/12/2025     Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify   Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de quinta-feira próximo da estabilidade, com leve alta de 0,07%, aos 159.189 pontos. O mercado repercutiu a decisão do Copom, que manteve a Selic em 15,00% e adotou um tom ligeiramente mais duro no comunicado, reforçando a expectativa do nosso time de economia de que o ciclo de cortes de juros no Brasil deve começar em março, e não em janeiro. Além disso, os investidores seguem atentos ao cenário político, à medida que o ambiente eleitoral para 2026 começa a ganhar maior relevância na precificação dos ativos. Entre os destaques positivos do dia, RD Saúde (RADL3, +3,2%) deu sequência ao movimento de alta, acumulando valorização de 7,8% na semana. Recentemente, nosso time de Varejo elevou a recomendação do papel de Neutro para Compra (veja mais detalhes aqui). Na ponta negativa, Suzano (SUZB3, -4,3%) recuou após a divulgação de suas estimativas de custo de produção de celulose para 2027. Para o pregão de sexta-feira, o principal destaque da agenda econômica será a divulgação da Pesquisa Mensal de Serviços de outubro no Brasil.   Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros encerraram a quinta-feira (11) com fechamento ao longo da curva, em um movimento de correção. No Brasil, sem a presença de ruídos relevantes no cenário político, o mercado encontrou espaço para aliviar parte da pressão acumulada na semana anterior, apoiado pela desvalorização do dólar. Com isso, o DI jan/26 fechou em 14,91% (-0,4bps frente ao pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 13,74% (-1,8bps); DI jan/29 em 13,14% (-11,9bps); e DI jan/31 em 13,42% (-11,7bps). Nos Estados Unidos, após a divulgação de dados mais fracos do mercado de trabalho e a decisão de afrouxamento monetário anunciada ontem,os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,53% (- 8,46bps vs. pregão anterior); enquanto os de dez anos em 4,14% (- 3,76bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta sexta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em queda (S&P 500: -0,1%; Nasdaq 100: -0,4%), após uma sessão marcada por forte rotação setorial e novos recordes históricos em Wall Street. Na véspera, o S&P 500 fechou em máxima histórica, impulsionado pelo fluxo para ações cíclicas e de valor após o terceiro corte de juros do Fed no ano, enquanto o Nasdaq recuou -0,3%, pressionado pela realização de lucros em ações ligadas à inteligência artificial, como Alphabet e Nvidia. No pós-mercado, Broadcom caiu quase 5% apesar de resultados fortes, enquanto Lululemon saltou +10% após anunciar a saída do CEO.  Na Europa, as bolsas operam em alta (Stoxx 600: +0,5%), acompanhando o forte desempenho recente dos mercados americanos e o apetite global por risco após o corte de juros nos EUA. O avanço é liderado por nomes específicos, como a francesa Wendel (+5,8%), após notícias de distribuição relevante de capital aos acionistas, enquanto ações ligadas à tecnologia recuam, refletindo a fraqueza recente do setor nos EUA. Investidores também acompanham dados finais de inflação na Alemanha, França e Espanha. Na China, os mercados fecharam em alta (CSI 300: +0,6%; HSI: +1,7%), após reação positiva às sinalizações das autoridades sobre apoio amplo à economia em 2026, com foco em estímulos ao consumo, estabilização do setor imobiliário e fortalecimento das capacidades tecnológicas domésticas. O movimento refletiu a melhora do sentimento global e expectativas de condições financeiras mais acomodadas. No Japão e na Coreia do Sul, ações de tecnologia e setores cíclicos lideraram os ganhos.   IFIX O IFIX fechou a quinta-feira com leve alta de 0,05%, acumulando ganho de 0,48% nos primeiros pregões de dezembro. O destaque foi a decisão do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom), anunciada após o pregão de quarta-feira, que manteve a taxa Selic em 15% e divulgou um comunicado cauteloso, reforçando a expectativa de início do ciclo de afrouxamento monetário em março de 2026, em linha com as projeções do nosso time de economia. No desempenho setorial, os fundos de papel avançaram, em média, 0,30%, enquanto os fundos de tijolo recuaram 0,16%, em movimento de correção. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se BPML11 (+3,8%), DEVA11 (+1,6%) e VCJR11 (+1,4%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram HSLG11 (-1,6%), PVBI11 (-1,3%) e TGAR11 (-1,2%).    Economia   Os pedidos de auxílio-desemprego nos EUA subiram 44 mil, alcançando 236 mil, a maior alta semanal desde março de 2020. O dado reforça a percepção de desaceleração do mercado de trabalho, mas ainda em patamar historicamente sólido. Ainda nos EUA, a balança comercial de setembro registrou um déficit de US$ 52,8 bilhões, o menor desde junho de 2020, superando as expectativas de cerca de US$ 63 bilhões. As exportações avançaram 3% em relação a setembro, contra apenas 0,6% de aumento das importações. Por fim, o Senado mexicano aprovou aumento de tarifas comerciais sobre diversos produtos, afetando países como Brasil e China. No Brasil, os dados divulgados pela Pesquisa Mensal de Comércio referentes a outubro vieram acima do esperado, com crescimento de 1,1% no varejo ampliado em relação a setembro (XP e Mercado: 0,3%) e 0,5% no varejo restrito (XP: -0,2%; Mercado: -0,1%). Entretanto, a economia perdeu tração neste semestre, em linha com a política monetária contracionista. Agenda de indicadores relativamente vazia, o destaque fica para a divulgação da Pesquisa Mensal de Serviços de outubro no Brasil, que esperamos avanço de 0,4% contra setembro (2,3% na comparação interanual).          O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     Vendas do varejo indicam arrefecimento da atividade econômica no Brasil    EMPRESAS:   Guararapes (GUAR3): Feedback do Investor Day 2025 RENDA FIXA:   De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO & FUNDOS:  Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias ESG:   Vendas globais de elétricos crescem em taxa mais lenta desde início de 2024 | Café com ESG, 12/12    Clique aqui para acessar o relatório Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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