O Ibovespa encerrou a quinta-feira em alta de 1,7%, aos 164.456 pontos. O principal destaque do dia foi a divulgação do PIB do terceiro trimestre, que veio abaixo das expectativas e sinalizou uma desaceleração da atividade econômica. O mercado vem reagindo positivamente aos sinais de uma desaceleração gradual da economia à medida que eles tendem a facilitar o início do ciclo de afrouxamento monetário no Brasil.
As ações mais sensíveis à dinâmica da taxa de juros – como Totvs (TOTS3, +7,2%), Localiza (RENT3, +5,0%) e Cury (CURY3, +4,2%) – lideraram os ganhos do índice, refletindo o fechamento da curva de juros futuros. Na ponta negativa, C&A (CEAB3, -9,0%) recuou de forma expressiva, apesar do movimento de alívio nos juros.
Renda Fixa
As taxas futuras de juros encerraram a quinta-feira em queda ao longo da curva, refletindo sinais de desaceleração da atividade doméstica. O leilão de títulos prefixados também contribuiu para o alívio nas taxas devido à baixa oferta. O DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,9% (+0,1bps vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 13,55% (- 4,1bps); DI jan/29 em 12,65% (- 4,9bps); DI jan/31 em 12,88% (- 3,5bps).
Nos Estados Unidos, os pedidos iniciais de seguro-desemprego surpreenderam para baixo, somando 191 mil, bem abaixo da projeção do mercado de 220 mil. Com isso, os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,52% (+1,16bps vs. pregão anterior); enquanto os de dez anos em 4,09% (+1,81bps).
Mercados globais
Nesta sexta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em alta (S&P 500: +0,2%; Nasdaq 100: +0,4%) enquanto investidores aguardam dados de inflação que podem guiar a decisão do Federal Reserve na próxima semana. O mercado segue atento após uma sessão mista, em que o Nasdaq registrou sua oitava alta em nove pregões, impulsionado por ganhos de Meta (+3,4%) e Nvidia (+2,1%). Dados recentes do mercado de trabalho trouxeram sinais mistos, com cortes corporativos passando de 1 milhão no ano, enquanto os pedidos semanais de seguro-desemprego caíram ao menor nível desde setembro de 2022. Hoje, o mercado espera a divulgação do PCE, principal indicador de inflação monitorado pelo Fed, junto de dados atrasados de renda e consumo.
Na Europa, as bolsas iniciam o dia em alta (Stoxx 600: +0,3%), com investidores também focados na decisão do Fed da próxima semana. A expectativa de corte de juros ganhou força nas últimas duas semanas, sustentando o apetite ao risco. Os mercados europeus acompanham ainda o ambiente geopolítico, com novas declarações de Vladimir Putin sobre o conflito na Ucrânia e discussões dentro da União Europeia sobre o uso de ativos russos. A agenda do dia inclui dados de PIB da União Europeia, pedidos industriais na Alemanha e vendas no varejo da Itália.
Na China, os mercados fecharam em alta (CSI 300: +0,8%; HSI: +0,6%). O destaque da sessão foi a estreia da fabricante chinesa de GPUs Moore Threads, que disparou mais de 400% em Xangai. No Japão, o Nikkei 225 caiu 1,05%, pressionado pela alta dos yields, com o juro do JGB de 10 anos atingindo 1,94%, o maior nível desde 2007, e refletindo a cautela global antes do PCE nos EUA. Na Índia, o índice subiu +0,2% após o Banco Central cortar os juros em 25 bps, citando fraqueza em indicadores econômicos apesar da desaceleração da inflação.
IFIX
O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a quinta-feira em alta de 0,24%, impulsionado pelo desempenho dos fundos de tijolo (+0,24%) e dos fundos de recebíveis (+0,26%). A valorização foi favorecida pelo fechamento da curva de juros futura, reflexo do PIB do terceiro trimestre abaixo das expectativas, que trouxe sinais de desaceleração da atividade doméstica.
Com esse resultado, o IFIX acumula alta de 0,42% no mês e 17,96% no ano. Entre as maiores valorizações do dia, destacaram-se DEVA11 (+3,0%), VILG11 (+2,4%) e SNFF11 (+2,1%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram BCIA11 (-1,1%), JSRE11 (-0,9%) e WHGR11 (-0,8%).
Economia
A economia brasileira perdeu tração nos últimos meses. O PIB cresceu 0,1% no 3º trimestre em comparação ao 2º trimestre deste ano, ligeiramente abaixo das expectativas (XP e Mercado: 0,2%). Esse resultado sucedeu o crescimento médio de 0,9% nas duas leituras anteriores. A demanda doméstica avançou moderadamente no último trimestre, com o consumo das famílias praticamente estável. A divulgação do PIB do 3º trimestre trouxe revisões altistas na série de dados, com destaque ao desempenho ainda mais forte da Agropecuária no primeiro semestre deste ano. A incorporação dessas revisões aumentou nossa expectativa para o PIB anual, a despeito da ligeira surpresa baixista com os dados do trimestre passado. Projetamos agora expansão de 2,3% em 2025 (antes: 2,1%). Nossa expectativa para 2026 continuou em 1,7%, já que o mercado de trabalho aquecido e medidas de estímulo (impulsos de renda e crédito) devem sustentar a atividade. Para uma análise completa sobre os resultados do PIB do 3º trimestre, clique aqui.
O Congresso aprovou o Projeto de Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias (PLDO) de 2026. O texto trouxe a exclusão de até R$ 10 bilhões na meta fiscal das estatais federais. A mudança ocorreu em meio às discussões sobre a reestruturação nas finanças dos Correios. O PLDO aprovado também autoriza o Poder Executivo a adotar o piso da meta fiscal como referência para bloqueios e contingenciamentos (ao invés do centro). Em contrapartida, o Planalto deu aval a um calendário para a liberação das emendas parlamentares no próximo ano. Por fim, para garantir a abertura de um espaço fiscal de aproximadamente R$ 13 bilhões no ano que vem – fruto da PEC 66, que alterou a regra dos precatórios –, o governo projetou uma arrecadação adicional de R$ 14 bilhões com a elevação do Imposto de Importação, ainda sem definição de quais produtos poderão ser atingidos.
Nesta manhã, publicamos o relatório Brasil Macro Mensal, com análises e projeções para a economia doméstica. A nosso ver, a desaceleração da atividade e a inflação corrente benigna sugerem que a política monetária pode ser menos contracionista. Mantivemos a projeção de que o Copom iniciará um ciclo gradual de cortes na taxa Selic em março. Mas não descartamos um início mais cedo, em janeiro. Para acessar o relatório completo, clique aqui.
O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!
ECONOMIA:
Aumento tímido do PIB no 3º trimestre confirma desaceleração econômica no curto prazo
COMMODITIES:
Proteínas | Data Expert: Exportações de Carnes – Nov/25
EMPRESAS:
1.Petrobras (PETR4) | Investindo em reservas de qualidade – Leilão de áreas não contratadas no pré-sal
ESG:
China afirma que está emitindo ativamente licenças para exportação de terras raras | Café com ESG, 05/12
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