Morning Call | Ata do FOMC nos EUA e dados do Caged no Brasil em destaque

XP Research 30 de Dezembro de 2025     Morning Call | Ata do FOMC nos EUA e dados do Caged no Brasil em destaque   Negociações de paz entre Rússia e Ucrânia e divulgação de indicadores do mercado de trabalho referentes a novembro são alguns dos temas de maior destaque nesta terça-feira, 30/12/2025 Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de segunda-feira em queda de 0,25%, aos 160.490 pontos, em um dia de noticiário mais esvaziado e menor liquidez à medida que o fim de 2025 se aproxima. O índice foi pressionado pelo desempenho negativo de Vale (VALE3, -1,4%), que recuou mesmo em um dia positivo para o minério de ferro (+1,0%). As ações da Brava (BRAV3, +5,0%) subiram, repercutindo o aumento do preço do petróleo (Brent, +2,1%). Cogna (COGN3, -3,1%) recuou, continuando a tendência negativa do papel em dezembro, que acumula uma queda de 12,4%. Para o pregão de terça-feira, destaque para a divulgação do relatório Caged de novembro no Brasil e da ata da última reunião do FOMC, o comitê de decisão de política monetária do banco central americano.   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros encerraram a segunda-feira com movimentos mistos, em nova sessão de liquidez reduzida. No Brasil, Pela manhã, o IGP-M surpreendeu com deflação de 0,01% em dezembro, abaixo da expectativa de +0,15%, enquanto o Focus trouxe ajustes marginais nas estimativas de inflação e Selic. Já o déficit primário do governo central em novembro superou expectativas ao atingir R$ 20,2 bilhões, e o dólar avançou 0,44%, para R$ 5,5689, com saída de fluxos corporativos para o exterior. Com isso, DI jan/27 fechou em 13,785% (+3,8bps); DI jan/28 em 13,150% (-0,5bps); DI jan/29 em 13,200% (-3,0bps); DI jan/31 em 13,505% (-3,0bps). Nos Estados Unidos, os rendimentos das Treasuries também operaram sem movimentos definidos, em dia de expectativa pela ata do Fed e notícias sobre negociações Rússia-Ucrânia. T-note 2y em 3,450% (-1,0bps); T-note 10y em 4,120% (-2,0bps); T-bond 30y em 4,800% (-1,0bps). Mercados globais   Nesta terça-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam estáveis (S&P 500: 0,0%; Nasdaq 100: 0,0%), após o S&P 500 registrar duas sessões consecutivas de queda, pressionado por novas realizações no setor de tecnologia. Entre os destaques negativos, Nvidia, Palantir, Oracle e Tesla caíram, refletindo preocupações com um possível excesso de investimentos ligados à inteligência artificial. O setor de materiais também pesou no índice, com Newmont caindo 5,6% após forte correção nos preços da prata e do ouro. Na Europa, as bolsas operam em alta (Stoxx 600: +0,4%), renovando máxima histórica à medida que o ano chega ao fim. O movimento é liderado pelo setor de mineração, com Fresnillo subindo 3,5%, além de ganhos em Anglo American, Antofagasta e Glencore, acompanhando a recuperação do ouro e da prata após a forte volatilidade registrada na véspera. Na China, os mercados fecharam em alta (CSI 300: +0,3%; HSI: +0,9%), mesmo em meio à cautela dos investidores diante de exercícios militares da China ao redor de Taiwan. No Japão, os índices recuaram pressionados por perdas em ações ligadas a tecnologia e data centers, com SoftBank recuando quase 2% após anunciar a aquisição da DigitalBridge por US$ 4 bilhões.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a sessão de segunda-feira com leve queda de 0,09%, acumulando alta de 3,06% em dezembro e de 21,05% no ano. Os fundos de papel registraram leve queda de 0,01%, enquanto os fundos de tijolos apresentaram queda de 0,28%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se VRTM11 (2,8%), VGRI11 (2,7%) e SNCI11 (2,5%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram CCME11 (-2,7%), RBFF11 (-2,4%) e RCRB11 (-2,3%).    Economia   Negociações de paz entre Rússia e Ucrânia têm reviravolta após suposto ataque por parte de Kiev, que nega o ocorrido. No Brasil, Governo do Estado de São Paulo anunciou reajuste nas tarifas de metrô e trem. Por fim, governo central registrou um déficit pior que o esperado em novembro, de R$ 20,2 bilhões. A arrecadação deve seguir desacelerando, enquanto as despesas continuarão pressionando o resultado do governo. Na agenda doméstica, destaque para a divulgação de indicadores do mercado de trabalho referentes a novembro. Esperamos criação de 65 mil vagas e uma taxa de desemprego em 5,4%, reforçando a visão de um mercado de trabalho ainda aquecido. Ainda, na seara fiscal, teremos a divulgação do resultado do setor público, que deve apresentar déficit de R$ 15,2 bilhões. Na agenda internacional, destaque para a divulgação de PMIs na China – sondagens empresariais que buscam captar o pulso da atividade econômica.     Economia:     Mercado de trabalho deve continuar aquecido com desemprego em 5,4% Empresas:   Varejo XP: Feedback da última rodada de 2025 com investidores locais Renda Fixa:  De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa Alocação & Fundos:   Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias ESG: Biopower, da JBS (JBSS32), anuncia investimento de R$ 140 milhões em usinas de biodiesel | Café com ESG, 30/12   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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