Morning Call | Ata do Fed e dados de emprego no Brasil na agenda da semana

XP Research 29 de Dezembro de 2025     Morning Call | Ata do Fed e dados de emprego no Brasil na agenda da semana   Divulgação da ata da última reunião de política monetária do banco central dos Estados Unidos e principais indicadores de emprego no Brasil são alguns dos temas de maior destaque da semana; saiba mais sobre os mercados nesta segunda, 29/12/2025      Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou a semana em alta de 1,5% em reais e 1,3% em dólares, aos 160.897 pontos, em uma semana mais curta e de menor liquidez devido ao feriado de Natal. O principal destaque positivo da semana foi Marcopolo (POMO4, +8,7%), após o anúncio de um aumento de capital de R$ 705 milhões, acompanhado de uma bonificação de 10% em ações. Na ponta negativa, o Pão de Açúcar (PCAR3, -4,8%) recuou, em movimento técnico, acumulando queda de 11,8% no mês até o momento.   Renda Fixa   Os juros futuros encerraram a sexta-feira (26) em queda ao longo da curva, com ajustes de posição após a alta acumulada no mês. O movimento ocorreu mesmo com o noticiário eleitoral e a alta do dólar, que fechou a R$ 5,54 (+0,24%). DI jan/27 em 13,730% (-9,8bps); DI jan/28 em 13,145% (-11,0bps); DI jan/29 em 13,220% (-9,7bps); DI jan/31 em 13,530% (-7,8bps). Nos Estados Unidos, os rendimentos dos Treasuries fecharam mistos, em dia de ajustes técnicos e expectativa pela ata do Fed. T-note 2y em 3,460% (-1,0bps); T-note 10y em 4,140% (-1,0bps); T-bond 30y em 4,810% (+2,0bps).  Mercados globais   Nesta segunda-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em queda (S&P 500: -0,2%; Nasdaq 100: -0,4%), após o índice ter renovado máximas históricas na última sessão e com investidores se preparando para encerrar um ano forte. O mercado segue no período sazonalmente positivo do chamado Santa Claus rally, mas ações ligadas à inteligência artificial pressionam os futuros, com quedas em Nvidia, Micron e Oracle no pré-mercado. Na Europa, as bolsas iniciam a última semana do ano estáveis (Stoxx 600: 0,0%). O principal destaque negativo é o setor de defesa, que recua após avanços nas negociações de paz entre Ucrânia e Rússia. Por outro lado, mineradoras ajudam a limitar perdas, impulsionadas pela alta acumulada dos metais preciosos ao longo do ano. Na China, os mercados fecharam mistos (HSI: +0,7%; CSI 300: -0,4%), refletindo um início cauteloso da última semana de negociações de 2025. No restante da Ásia, o destaque do dia foi o mercado de metais, com a prata renovando máxima histórica acima de US$ 80/onça antes de devolver parte dos ganhos.   IFIX   O IFIX encerrou a semana em alta de 1,84%, impulsionado principalmente pelos fundos híbridos e FOFs, que avançaram 2,82% e 1,94%, respectivamente, beneficiados pelo fechamento da curva de juros. Os fundos de tijolo também registraram desempenho positivo, com alta de 1,68%, destaque para o segmento de lajes corporativas (+2,85%). Já os fundos de papel apresentaram ganho de 1,61%.    Economia   No final de semana, Donald Trump afirmou que Ucrânia e Rússia estão "mais próximas do que nunca" de um acordo de paz após encontro com Volodymyr Zelensky e conversa com Vladimir Putin. Trump planeja nova ligação com Putin e indicou expectativa de definição nas próximas semanas.  Na agenda internacional desta semana, destaque para a divulgação da ata da última reunião de política monetária do banco central dos Estados Unidos. Além disso, serão publicadas sondagens empresariais (PMI) nas principais economias do mundo. No Brasil, serão divulgados os principais indicadores de emprego, o relatório Caged e a PNAD contínua, ambos referentes a novembro. Além disso, o Tesouro Nacional e o Banco Central tornarão públicas as estatísticas fiscais do último mês.       ECONOMIA:     Ata do FOMC é destaque da semana    Renda Fixa:  De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa Alocação & Fundos:   Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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