O Ibovespa encerrou a quarta-feira em alta de 0,7%, aos 159.074 pontos, acompanhando o movimento dos mercados globais (S&P 500 +0,7%; Nasdaq +0,4%), que reagiram à decisão do Federal Reserve de reduzir os juros em 25 bps, conforme esperado. A reunião foi marcada por dissenso interno, com dois membros votando pela manutenção da taxa e um defendendo corte de 50 bps. No cenário doméstico, o IPCA de novembro veio em linha com o esperado, reforçando um ambiente de moderação inflacionária, o que tende a ser positivo para as ações. Além disso, o mercado aguardava a decisão do Copom, divulgada após o fechamento, que manteve a Selic em 15% e seguiu adotando um tom duro no comunicado, reforçando as expectativas de que o início do ciclo de cortes da taxa Selic deve ocorrer apenas em março, e não em janeiro.
Os destaques positivos do dia foram as mineradoras como CSN, Usiminas e Vale (CSNA3, +6,4%; USIM5, +4,1%; VALE3, +1,8%), repercutindo a alta dos preços do minério de ferro. Na ponta negativa, C&A (CEAB3, -4,0%) recuou, seguindo com a tendência negativa das ações da companhia, que acumulam uma queda de 23,9% em dezembro.
Renda Fixa
As taxas futuras de juros encerraram a quarta-feira com movimentos mistos ao longo da curva. No Brasil, a ponta curta recebeu alívio após a decisão do Fed, enquanto os vértices longos foram pressionados por ruídos eleitorais. Por aqui, o DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,91% (- 0,1bps vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 13,72% (- 1,1bps); DI jan/29 em 13,19% (+3,9bps); DI jan/31 em 13,48% (+4,7bps). Nos EUA, a decisão de juros do FOMC forneceu alívio para as taxas, com os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,54% (- 7,24 bps vs. pregão anterior); enquanto os de dez anos em 4,15% (- 3,62bps).
Mercados globais
Nesta quinta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em queda (S&P 500: -0,5%; Nasdaq 100: -0,8%), em meio à forte correção das Big Techs impulsionada pelos resultados decepcionantes da Oracle. O mercado havia reagido positivamente à terceira redução consecutiva da taxa básica, com o S&P 500 e o Dow encerrando a sessão anterior em alta, mas o movimento perdeu força depois que a Oracle divulgou receita abaixo do esperado e elevou seu guidance de capex, reacendendo dúvidas sobre o ritmo de monetização dos investimentos em AI. A leitura do comunicado e a fala de Powell reforçaram um cenário de "wait and see" para 2026, aumentando a perspectiva de maior volatilidade nos próximos meses.
Na Europa, os mercados abriram em alta (Stoxx 600: +0,2%), apesar de reação global ao desempenho das Big Techs e da pela decisão do banco central suíço de manter os juros em 0% diante de uma inflação mais branda. A interpretação do corte do Fed também molda o sentimento local, com analistas reforçando que o ciclo de flexibilização europeu já se encontra praticamente esgotado, e que fatores externos continuam sendo o maior risco macro para 2026.
Na China, os mercados fecharam em queda (CSI 300: -0,9%; HSI: -0,1%) refletindo movimento das empresas de tecnologia americanas, preocupações renovadas com o setor industrial e notícias envolvendo investigações de compliance sobre a ZTE, apesar do alívio no dólar após o corte de juros. O ambiente de cautela prevaleceu em toda a região, refletindo a visão dominante de que o Fed encerrou temporariamente seu ciclo de afrouxamento e que a trajetória futura dependerá mais diretamente da evolução do mercado de trabalho americano e dos impactos das tarifas implementadas pelo governo Trump.
IFIX
O IFIX encerrou a quarta-feira com leve alta de 0,02%, acumulando ganho de 0,44% nos primeiros pregões de dezembro. No desempenho setorial, os fundos de tijolo avançaram, em média, 0,04%, enquanto os fundos de papel recuaram 0,09%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se URPR11 (+3,7%), TGAR11 (+2,2%) e GTWR11 (+1,8%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram BLMG11 (-2,0%), BCRI11 (-1,2%) e KNIP11 (-1,0%).
Economia
O IPCA subiu 0,18% em novembro comparado a outubro, em linha com as expectativas (XP: 0,17%; Mercado: 0,19%). Com isso, a inflação anual recuou de 4.68% para 4,46%, retornando ao intervalo de tolerância da meta após 13 meses acima de 4,5%. A leitura de novembro foi marcada pelos descontos da Black Friday, que proporcionaram uma queda significativa nos preços de bens industrializados. Além disso, o grupo de preços de alimentos apresentou deflação pelo sexto mês consecutivo. Continuamos a projetar inflação de 4,3% em 2025 e 4,2% em 2026 (com viés de baixa).
O Copom (Comitê de Política Monetária do Banco Central) manteve a taxa Selic em 15,00%, conforme amplamente esperado. O comunicado pós-reunião trouxe poucas mudanças em relação ao documento divulgado em novembro, o que interpretamos como um sinal de cautela. O comitê reforçou que "a estratégia em curso, de manutenção do nível corrente da taxa de juros por período bastante prolongado, é adequada para assegurar a convergência da inflação à meta". A nosso ver, isso não significa que os juros ficarão inalterados por um período muito prolongado à frente, mas tampouco indica que o Copom esteja considerando qualquer mudança no curto prazo. A projeção de inflação do Copom para o atual horizonte relevante da política monetária (2º trimestre de 2027) recuou de 3,3% para 3,2%, em linha com a nossa expectativa. Continuamos a projetar que o Copom iniciará um ciclo de cortes de juros em março. Prevemos seis reduções consecutivas de 0,50 p.p., com a taxa Selic chegando a 12,00% até o final do ano.
Nos Estados Unidos, o Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central local) cortou sua taxa básica de juros em 0,25 p.p., para o intervalo entre 3,50% e 3,75%. A decisão, amplamente esperada pelo mercado, contou com nove votos favoráveis. Dois membros optaram pela manutenção dos juros (Austan Goolsbee e Jeffrey Schmid), enquanto um membro votou por um corte de 0,50 p.p. (Stephen Miran). A projeção mediana dos diretores do Fed manteve mais um corte de juros em 2026 e outro em 2027. Na coletiva de imprensa após a decisão de política monetária, o presidente do Fed, Jerome Powell, enfatizou que o banco central se encontra em modo de espera, com decisões dependentes da evolução dos dados econômicos.
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ECONOMIA:
1.Copom manteve a taxa Selic em 15,00%, enquanto o Fed cortou juros pela terceira reunião consecutiva
COMMODITIES:
1.Mineração e Siderurgia | Papel e Celulose | Bens de Capital: Percepções divergentes entre investidores locais e estrangeiros
EMPRESAS:
1.Magazine Luiza (MGLU3): por dentro da Galeria Magalu
2.Petz (PETZ3): antes tarde do que nunca; fusão com Cobasi aprovada
3.Direcional | Dividendos intermediários anunciados (cerca de 9% de dividend yield)
4.Rumo (RAIL3): Relatório Mensal Ferroviário + Atualização de Estimativas
5.Localiza (RENT3): cautelosamente mais otimistas com maior visibilidade de resultados
6.Cyrela | Criatividade para distribuir mais capital
7.Bens de Capital: a política monetária vai moldar o desempenho das empresas de bens de capital no próximo ano?
RENDA FIXA:
1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa
ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:
1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias
ESG:
1.UE define meta climática para a redução de 90% das emissões até 2040 | Café com ESG, 11/12
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