Morning Call | Dados de emprego no Brasil, anúncios de dividendos e mais

XP Research 28 de Novembro de 2025     Morning Call | Dados de emprego no Brasil, anúncios de dividendos e mais   Pnad e resultado do setor público são alguns dos temas de maior destaque nesta sexta-feira, 28/11/2025     Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify   Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de quinta-feira próximo da estabilidade, com uma leve queda de 0,1%, aos 158.360 pontos, em um dia de menor liquidez devido ao feriado de Ação de Graças nos EUA. No cenário doméstico, o Caged de outubro veio abaixo das expectativas, mas ainda sinalizando uma atividade e mercado de trabalho resilientes no Brasil. Entre as companhias de maior relevância no índice, Petrobras (PETR3, PETR4) subiu 0,5% enquanto os investidores esperavam a divulgação do plano de negócios da companhia após o fechamento de mercado, enquanto Vale recuou 0,4%.   Pão de Açucar (PCAR3, +3,2%) também apresentou alta. A companhia anunciou que contratou um empréstimo de R$ 470 milhões com o objetivo de alongar uma de suas dívidas. Na ponta negativa, Hapvida (HAPV3, -5,3%) voltou a recuar, ainda refletindo a divulgação de resultados significativamente abaixo das expectativas no 3T25, o que gerou uma onda de revisões negativas nas recomendações de analistas.   Nesta sexta-feira, destaque para a divulgação da taxa de desemprego referente a outubro no Brasil. Além disso, publicamos um relatório sobre o pagamento de dividendos extraordinários no Brasil. A aprovação da reforma do Imposto de Renda pela Câmara dos Deputados em 1º de outubro introduziu uma medida compensatória de imposto de renda retido na fonte (IRRF) de 10% sobre dividendos mensais acima de R$ 50.000 pagos por empresas a pessoas físicas no Brasil, acompanhada de uma emenda que estabelece que os lucros apurados até 31 de dezembro de 2025 permanecerão isentos desse imposto, mesmo que distribuídos até 2028. Essa combinação criou um forte incentivo para que as companhias brasileiras antecipem anúncios de dividendos antes do final de 2025, e nomes como Allos, Itaú e Vale já o fizeram, totalizando R$ 42,2 bilhões. Saiba mais aqui.   Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros apresentaram movimentos sem direção clara ao longo da curva nesta quinta-feira. O Caged de outubro mostrou criação líquida de 85.147 vagas, abaixo da expectativa do mercado (entre 105 mil e 120 mil), enquanto os comentários de Galípolo foram vistos como mais duros, reduzindo as apostas em cortes da Selic e pressionando a ponta curta da curva. O DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,89% (- 0,2bps vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 13,55% (+2,7bps); DI jan/29 em 12,72% (+1bps); DI jan/31 em 13,01% (- 1,4bps). Nos Estados Unidos, o mercado de Treasuries permaneceu fechado devido ao feriado de Ação de Graças.   Mercados globais   Nesta sexta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em alta (S&P 500: +0,1%; Nasdaq 100: +0,2%), com o Nasdaq Composite caminhando para encerrar uma sequência de sete meses de ganhos. O avanço de novembro foi pressionado por realização em nomes de tecnologia, à medida que dúvidas sobre a lucratividade futura das empresas de IA pesaram sobre o mercado. Ainda assim, parte dos investidores vê o recuo como uma oportunidade para um possível rali de fim de ano, especialmente após a forte recuperação dos últimos dias.   Na Europa, as bolsas operam em leve baixa (Stoxx 600: -0,1%) conforme os investidores digerem o fim de um mês bastante volátil para ativos globais. A região enfrentou fortes oscilações por conta das preocupações com valuations de IA e incertezas de política monetária, embora o sentimento tenha melhorado nesta semana com expectativas de corte de juros pelo Fed em dezembro. No setor automotivo, a produção britânica caiu 23,8% em outubro devido a um ataque cibernético que paralisou a Jaguar Land Rover por mais de duas semanas. Investidores também monitoram hoje dados preliminares de inflação de diversos países europeus.   Na China, os mercados fecharam em mistos (CSI 300: +0,3%; HSI: -0,3%), em meio às expectativas de corte de juros pelo Fed e incertezas em relação à inteligência artificial. O Nikkei 225 subiu 0,2%, enquanto o Topix avançou 0,3%, ambos em sua terceira sessão positiva, após a inflação central de Tóquio subir 2,8%, acima do esperado, reforçando a possibilidade de alta de juros pelo Banco do Japão.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a quinta-feira em alta de 0,45%, impulsionado principalmente pelo desempenho dos fundos de papel, que avançaram 0,50%, enquanto os fundos de tijolo registraram alta de 0,43%. Com esse desempenho, o IFIX renovou sua máxima histórica, atingindo 3.634,55 pontos, acumulando valorização de 1,14% no mês e de 16,63% no ano. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se VILG11 (+3,8%), VINO11 (+3,0%) e TGAR11 (+2,1%). Já entre as principais quedas figuraram AIEC11 (-1,1%), URPR11 (-0,6%) e WHGR11 (-0,6%).    Economia   Divulgado ontem, o relatório do Caged mostrou criação líquida de 85,1 mil empregos formais em outubro, abaixo das expectativas. Segundo nossas estimativas com ajuste sazonal, o saldo de empregos recuou para 82 mil, ante 115 mil em setembro. O acumulado em 12 meses atingiu 1,352 milhão de vagas em outubro. O cenário de taxa de desemprego historicamente baixa e salários reais em alta persiste. Projetamos criação líquida de 1,320 milhão de empregos formais em 2025, após 1,680 milhão em 2024. Nossa projeção para 2026 é de 950 mil vagas com carteira assinada.   Na agenda doméstica, destaque para a divulgação da Pnad, que deve continuar apresentando um mercado de trabalho aquecido, com a taxa de desemprego nas mínimas históricas, em torno de 5,5%. Além disso, o resultado do setor público de outubro deve apresentar superávit de R$ 33,3 bilhões.        O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     Taxa de desemprego deve continuar nas mínimas históricas   EMPRESAS:     1.BTG (BPAC): Incorporando a Mudança – ROE, Eficiência e Valuation 2.Varejo XP: Uma Black Friday recorde a caminho 3.Varejo XP: As estratégias dos marketplaces para a Black Friday 4.Kepler Weber (KEPL3): Construindo resiliência por meio da diversificação   ESTRATÉGIA:     Pagamento de dividendos extraordinários pode ser significativo no Brasil   ESG:   Explorando os temas que os investidores estão acompanhando de perto         Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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