Morning call | Bolsas hoje: IPCA-15 no Brasil e Livro Bege nos EUA em foco

XP Research 26 de novembro de 2025 Morning Call Bolsas hoje: IPCA-15 no Brasil e Livro Bege nos EUA em foco  Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify     Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de terça-feira em alta de 0,4%, aos 155.910 pontos. Com o noticiário doméstico mais esvaziado, as ações brasileiras continuaram acompanhando o tom positivo dos mercados globais, que tiveram um dia de alta (S&P 500 +0,9%; Nasdaq +0,6%) à medida que o mercado consolida a expectativa de um corte de juros pelo Federal Reserve na reunião de dezembro. O destaque positivo do dia foi Usiminas (USIM5, +6,4%), impulsionada pelo avanço do preço do minério de ferro. Na ponta negativa, ações do setor de Óleo & Gás, como Braskem (BRKM5, -3,7%), Prio (PRIO3, -2,7%) e PetroRecôncavo (RECV3, -2,6%), recuaram após a queda no preço do petróleo (Brent -1,4%). Para o pregão de quarta-feira, o principal destaque da agenda econômica será a divulgação do IPCA-15 de novembro no Brasil.   Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros recuaram ao longo da curva nesta terça-feira (25), refletindo uma percepção crescente de espera de cortes nos juros. No Brasil, o movimento foi influenciado por declarações do diretor de Política Monetária do Banco Central, Nilton, que afirmou que "aumentar os juros não está mais no cenário-base do BC" e que "o foco agora é entender quando começará o processo de redução". Com isso, o DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,89% (- 0,4bps vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 13,51% (- 4,7bps); DI jan/29 em 12,74% (- 6,4bps); DI jan/31 em 13,09% (- 4,5bps). Nos Estados Unidos, os mercados adotaram uma postura mais cautelosa no início da tarde, com investidores reduzindo posições em ações em Nova York e migrando para Treasuries. Esse movimento foi reforçado pela expectativa de corte de juros pelo Fed em dezembro, que avançou para cerca de 80%. Com isso, os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,46% (- 3,31bps vs. pregão anterior); enquanto os de dez anos em 3,99% (- 2,98bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta quarta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em alta (S&P 500: +0,3%; Nasdaq 100: +0,4%) após uma sessão marcada por volatilidade e rotação setorial. Na véspera, o S&P 500 e o Nasdaq fecharam no positivo. Alphabet renovou máximas históricas após notícia de que a Meta estaria considerando usar seus chips TPU em 2027, enquanto Nvidia recuou mais de 2,5%. Apesar da recuperação recente, novembro continua negativo para todos os índices. As expectativas de política monetária seguem no foco, com cerca de 85% de probabilidade de corte de 25 bps em dezembro, segundo o CME FedWatch Tool. Na Europa, as bolsas operam em alta (Stoxx 600: +0,5%), acompanhando o movimento positivo dos EUA e da Ásia após nova rodada de apostas em corte de juros pelo Federal Reserve. Em Londres, os mercados aguardam o Autumn Budget, no qual a chanceler Rachel Reeves deve anunciar um pacote amplo de aumentos de impostos para recompor o espaço fiscal. As taxas dos gilts de 10 anos avançam 2 bps no pré-market. Na frente geopolítica, comentários de Trump sobre um acordo de paz "muito próximo" entre Rússia e Ucrânia movimentam a região. Na China, os mercados fecharam em alta (CSI 300: +0,6%; HSI: +0,1%), acompanhando o rali americano e o avanço das expectativas por corte de juros nos EUA, embora Alibaba tenha caído 1,27% após divulgar queda de 78% no EBITA ajustado. No setor de semicondutores, Advantest e Renesas avançaram, enquanto Kioxia despencou 14,89% após notícia de que a Bain Capital planeja vender parte relevante de sua participação.    IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a terça-feira em alta de 0,14%, impulsionado principalmente pelo desempenho dos fundos de papel, que avançaram 0,15%, enquanto os fundos de tijolo registraram alta de 0,09%. A valorização foi favorecida pelo fechamento da curva de juros futura, movimento influenciado por declarações do diretor de Política Monetária do Banco Central, que reforçaram a percepção positiva quanto ao ciclo de cortes nos juros. Com esse desempenho, o IFIX renovou sua máxima histórica, atingindo 3.631,23 pontos, acumulando valorização de 1,05% no mês e de 16,52% no ano. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se RECR11 (+1,7%), HCTR11 (+1,6%) e RBVA11 (+1,4%). Já entre as principais quedas figuraram PVBI11 (-1,6%), RBRP11 (-1,5%) e RBRX11 (-1,1%).   Economia   Nos Estados Unidos, dados de vendas no varejo para o mês de setembro mostraram crescimento de 0,2%, abaixo da expectativa do mercado e do mês de agosto. A medida de núcleo, que exclui alguns itens mais voláteis, mostrou alta de 0,1%, também abaixo das expectativas. A desaceleração das vendas reforça o cenário de desaceleração da atividade econômica. Já o índice de preços ao produtor mostrou alta de 0,3% em setembro, em linha com as expectativas, com impacto mais forte de energia e do repasse de tarifas pelos produtores. No Brasil, dados do balanço de pagamentos mostraram déficit de US$ 5,1 bilhões, acima das expectativas de mercado, puxado pela alta no pagamento de juros. O déficit foi financiado pela entrada em US$ 10.9 bilhões em investimentos externos, que foram impulsionados por várias transações de participação de capital. Esperamos déficit de US$ 73,1 bilhões na conta corrente neste ano e entrada de US$ 79,6 bilhões em investimentos externos. Na agenda do dia, teremos nos Estados Unidos a divulgação do livro bege, que compila informações descritivas sobre o estado da economia nos distritos onde o Fed opera. No Brasil, destaque para o IPCA-15, que deve mostrar inflação moderada com alta de 0,18%. Teremos ainda a divulgação dos dados de crédito e do resultado do governo central, ambos para o mês de outubro.      O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1. IPCA-15 deve apresentar inflação moderada em novembro    COMMODITIES:     1. Papel e Celulose: Os volumes importados de cavacos de madeira da China diminuíram em out'25   EMPRESAS:    1. Vibra Energia (VBBR3) | Ajuste de preço-alvo de acordo com novo número de ações e dividendos 2. Allos (ALOS3): Ganhos de produtividade e dividendos em destaque   RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa    ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:    1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG:   1.Governo veta trecho de MP que previa ressarcimento a usinas renováveis por curtailment | Café com ESG, 26/11    Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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