Balanços de pagamentos no Brasil e varejo nos EUA no radar

XP Research 25 de novembro de 2025 Morning Call Balanços de pagamentos no Brasil e varejo nos EUA no radar Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de segunda-feira em alta de 0,3%, aos 157.277 pontos, após uma semana inteira de desempenho negativo. Depois da forte alta observada até a primeira metade de novembro, impulsionada pelo maior otimismo com o ciclo de corte de juros no Brasil e por uma sólida temporada de resultados, as ações brasileiras vêm, em geral, acompanhando a direção do movimento das bolsas globais. Ontem não foi diferente: o S&P 500 subiu 1,6% e o Nasdaq avançou 2,6%, em um dia de recuperação diante da retomada das expectativas de corte de juros pelo Fed em dezembro e da recuperação das ações ligadas ao tema de IA após a correção das últimas semanas. Entre os destaques positivos do dia estiveram papéis mais sensíveis aos juros, como MRV (MRVE3, +3,9%), Assaí (ASAI3, +3,9%) e Vamos (VAMO3, +3,8%), repercutindo o fechamento da curva de juros. CSN Mineração (CMIN3, -6,3%) recuou, acumulando queda de 13,7% em novembro até o momento. A companhia anunciou que seu conselho aprovou um programa de venda de ações em tesouraria, envolvendo até a totalidade dos papéis detidos pela empresa. Nesta terça-feira, a agenda econômica inclui a divulgação das vendas do varejo e da inflação ao produtor (PPI) de setembro nos EUA. Pela temporada internacional de resultados do 3T25, destaque para o balanço de Alibaba. Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros fecharam em queda ao longo da curva nesta segunda-feira, refletindo maior expectativa do mercado de políticas de afrouxamento monetário. O movimento foi impulsionado por declarações do presidente do BC, Gabriel Galípolo, que sinalizou espaço para início do ciclo de redução da Selic. Enquanto isso, no exterior, a expectativa de corte pelo Fed em dezembro levou ao recuo das Treasuries e reforçou o ambiente positivo. Dessa forma, o DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,9% (- 0,1bps vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 13,55% (- 7,9bps); DI jan/29 em 12,8% (- 8,3bps); DI jan/31 em 13,13% (- 7,2bps). Os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,49% (- 1,16bps vs. pregão anterior); enquanto os de dez anos em 4,02% (- 3,61bps). Mercados globais   Nesta terça-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em queda (S&P 500: -0,2%; Nasdaq 100: -0,4%) após o forte rali na véspera impulsionado por ações de tecnologia e pela crescente probabilidade de corte de juros em dezembro pelo Federal Reserve. Na sessão anterior, o S&P 500 avançou quase 1,6% e o Nasdaq saltou 2,7%, sendo o melhor dia desde 12 de maio. Alphabet foi o grande destaque entre as "Magnificent Seven", com alta de 6,3% após entusiasmo com seu novo modelo Gemini 3, enquanto Broadcom disparou mais de 11% e liderou o S&P 500. O mercado acompanha as expectativas para a decisão do Fed, com mais de 80% de probabilidade de corte de 25 bps em dezembro, segundo o CME FedWatch Tool. Na Europa, as bolsas operam estáveis (Stoxx 600: 0,0%), acompanhando o impulso dos EUA após o rali das Big Techs e a melhora no sentimento global com a possibilidade de redução de juros nos EUA. No setor de defesa, que vem sofrendo forte volatilidade por causa das discussões sobre um plano de paz para a Ucrânia, Renk e Rheinmetall lideram a recuperação após duas sessões de perdas intensas. Líderes da União Europeia discutiram na segunda-feira a proposta preliminar elaborada por EUA e Rússia, que sugeria concessões territoriais da Ucrânia. Na China, os mercados fecharam em alta (CSI 300: +1,0%; HSI: +0,7%), repercutindo o salto das empresas de tecnologia nos EUA e o otimismo em torno da liderança da Alphabet na corrida da IA. No Japão, o Nikkei 225 encerrou estável, enquanto o Topix caiu 0,21%. Ações ligadas à IA lideraram os ganhos no Japão, com a Advantest e Tokyo Electron. O movimento regional reflete a melhora do apetite por risco após o rali das Big Techs e as expectativas de corte de juros pelo Fed. IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a sessão de segunda-feira praticamente estável, com leve alta de 0,02%, renovando sua máxima histórica ao atingir 3.626,28 pontos. No acumulado de novembro, o índice registra avanço de 0,91%, enquanto no ano a valorização chega a 16,37%. Os fundos de papel e os FOFs apresentaram altas de 0,26% e 0,48%, respectivamente, impulsionadas pelo fechamento da curva de juros após declarações do presidente do Banco Central, Gabriel Galípolo, sobre perspectivas do ciclo de afrouxamento monetário. Em contrapartida, os fundos híbridos e de tijolos recuaram 0,23% e 0,15%. Entre os subsegmentos, os fundos de shoppings registraram queda de 0,10%, enquanto os ativos logísticos recuaram 0,37%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se VGIP11 (+2,4%), KNIP11 (+2,1%) e SNFF11 (+1,4%). Já entre as principais quedas figuraram HSLG11 (-2,0%), FATN11 (-1,3%) e RBRR11 (-1,2%). Economia Conversa com Xi Jinping, presidente da China, foi classificada como "ótima" por Donald Trump, em que foram abordados tópicos como tarifas e a guerra na Ucrânia. Ambos os líderes sinalizaram intenção de manter diálogo frequente e trocaram convites para visitas oficiais, com objetivo de reduzir incertezas nas relações bilaterais. No Brasil, a arrecadação tributária federal totalizou R$ 261,9 bilhões em outubro, um aumento de 0,9% em termos reais em relação ao mesmo mês do ano anterior, impulsionada pelo IOF, imposto de renda retido na fonte e IRPJ/CSLL. Apesar do crescimento da receita, a tendência é de desvalorização, em linha com o arrefecimento da atividade e queda da inflação. Por fim, acreditamos que o aumento na arrecadação tributária não será suficiente para atingir a meta do resultado primário. Na agenda internacional, destaque para a o índice de preços ao produtor (PPI, na sigla em inglês) e vendas no varejo de setembro nos Estados Unidos, que voltaram a ser divulgados após o fim do shutdown. No Brasil, destaque para o Balanço de Pagamentos, que deve apresentar déficit de US$ 4,4 bilhões nas transações correntes e fluxo de investimentos estrangeiros de US$ 6,7 bilhões.   O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:   1.Balanço de Pagamentos é o destaque do dia COMMODITIES: 1.Mineração e Siderurgia: Melhora no sentimento, mas menor demanda no fim do ano pode atrasar aumentos de preços EMPRESAS: 1.Minerva (BEEF3) | Momentum não acabou, mas o bife está menos suculento 2.Mills (MILS3): Feedback da Reunião com o CEO RENDA FIXA:  1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa ALOCAÇÃO E FUNDOS:  1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias   ESG: 1.Banco Europeu de Investimento compromete >2 bi de euros para projetos de renováveis na África | Café com ESG, 25/11  2.Destaques da COP30: O que você precisa saber   ASSISTA Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. ("XP Investimentos or XP") according to the requirements provided in CVM Resolution 20/2021 and aims to provide information that can help the investors make their own investment decisions, and does not constitute any kind of offer or purchase request and/or sale of any product. The information contained in this report is considered valid on the date of disclosure and has been obtained from public sources. 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