Morning Call | Bolsas hoje: prévia do PIB e balanços em foco

XP Research   16 de outubro de 2025 Morning Call Bolsas hoje: prévia do PIB e balanços em foco   Ibovespa O Ibovespa encerrou o pregão de quarta-feira em alta de 0,7%, aos 142.603 pontos, acompanhando a alta dos mercados globais (S&P 500, +0,4%; Nasdaq, +0,7%) em meio a retomada do otimismo do mercado com o cenário de corte de juros nos EUA após falas mais brandas do presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. Com isso, o câmbio também se beneficiou, fechando em queda de 0,2%, aos R$ 5,46. No cenário doméstico, os dados de vendas do varejo de agosto vieram ligeiramente acima das expectativas, mas ainda reforçando a expectativa de desaceleração da economia ao longo do segundo semestre de 2025. Entre os destaques positivos do dia temos RD Saúde (RADL3, +4,5%), após elevação de preço-alvo por um banco de investimentos. Na ponta negativa, as petroleiras Brava (BRAV3, -2,2%), Prio (PRIO3, -2,0%) e Petrobras (PETR3, -1,4%; PETR4, -0,9%) recuaram, repercutindo a queda do preço do petróleo. Para o pregão de quinta-feira, destaque para a divulgação do IBC-Br de agosto no Brasil. Pela temporada internacional de resultados do 3T25, os principais balanços serão os de Charles Schwab e US Bancorp. Renda Fixa As taxas futuras de juros encerraram a sessão de quarta-feira (15) com movimentos mistos ao longo da curva. No Brasil, as taxas de juros de curto prazo avançaram, impulsionados pela recuperação do setor varejista em agosto, medida pelo volume de vendas, que subiu 0,2% em relação a julho, segundo o IBGE. Já os vértices de longo prazo recuaram, refletindo a redução dos prêmios de risco que haviam sido incorporados pelo mercado em sessões anteriores marcadas por maior tensão no cenário externo, em movimento de correção. Nos Estados Unidos, os rendimentos dos títulos soberanos oscilaram pouco, com os investidores mantendo atenção sobre os desdobramentos da relação comercial com a China. Assim, na curva local, o DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,9% (+0,3bps vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 14,04% (+4,5bps); DI jan/29 em 13,31% (- 4,8bps); DI jan/31 em 13,53% (- 9,9bps). Os rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,49% (+1,77bp vs. pregão anterior), enquanto os de dez anos em 4,02% (+0,14bp). Mercados globais Nesta quinta-feira, os futuros nos EUA operam em alta (S&P 500: +0,4%; Nasdaq 100: +0,5%) após resultados fortes de bancos renovarem o otimismo do mercado, apesar do prolongamento do shutdown e das tensões comerciais com a China. Entre os destaques do pós-fechamento, J.B. Hunt disparou +13% após superar expectativas de lucro e receita, enquanto Salesforce subiu +6% após projeção positiva no evento Dreamforce. Já United Airlines recuou -2% com receita abaixo do esperado. O aumento da volatilidade reflete o acirramento das disputas comerciais, após o presidente Donald Trump ameaçar um bloqueio às importações de óleo de cozinha, enquanto Pequim mantém restrições às exportações de minerais raros. O VIX, índice de volatilidade, encerrou o dia em 20,6. Na Europa, as bolsas sobem (Stoxx 600: +0,5%), acompanhando a recuperação global após dias de instabilidade. O CAC 40 avança +0,8%, impulsionado pelas ações de consumo e luxo. O destaque do dia é a Nestlé, que sobre +8% após anunciar corte de 12 mil cargos administrativos e previsão de mais 4 mil demissões até 2026. Na China, os mercados fecharam mistos (CSI 300: +0,3%; HSI: -0,1%), enquanto outros países da região registraram fortes altas. O destaque foi a Coreia do Sul, onde o Kospi saltou +2,5% e renovou máxima histórica após o FMI elevar a projeção de crescimento do país para 0,9% em 2025. O otimismo também foi sustentado por comentários do secretário do Tesouro dos EUA, Scott Bessent, que afirmou estar próximo de concluir um acordo comercial com Seul. IFIX O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a quarta-feira em alta de 0,30%, impulsionado por declarações mais brandas do presidente do Federal Reserve, que reacenderam o otimismo dos investidores quanto ao início do ciclo de cortes de juros nos Estados Unidos. Apesar do avanço, o índice ainda acumula queda de 0,09% em outubro. Os FIIs de Tijolos foram o destaque positivo da sessão, com avanço médio de 0,33%, enquanto os FIIs de Papel registraram variação média de 0,32%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se TRBL11 (+1,8%), IRDM11 (+1,7%) e SNFF11 (+1,7%). Por outro lado, as principais quedas ficaram com VGRI11 (-1,9%), RVBI11 (-1,5%) e GZIT11 (-1,4%). Economia Nos Estados Unidos, o Federal Reserve (banco central) publicou o chamado "Livro Bege", relatório bimestral que oferece uma avaliação qualitativa das condições econômicas atuais. A atividade mudou pouco desde o relatório anterior, com o consumo privado desacelerando moderadamente nas últimas semanas. Na maioria das regiões, mais empregadores relataram recuo nas contratações, citando demanda mais fraca, maior incerteza econômica e, em alguns casos, aumento do investimento em inteligência artificial, além de restrições na oferta de mão de obra devido a mudanças recentes nas políticas de imigração.   No Brasil, as vendas no varejo ampliado cresceram 0,9% em agosto comparado a julho, um pouco acima das expectativas (XP: 0,7%; Mercado: 0,5%). Em relação ao mesmo mês de 2024, o indicador caiu 2,1% (XP e Mercado: -2,4%). Os resultados do comércio varejista em agosto reforçaram o cenário de desaceleração da demanda doméstica ao longo do segundo semestre. Hoje, destaque para a divulgação do Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central (IBC-Br), que serve como proxy mensal do PIB. Estimamos crescimento de 1,1% em agosto comparado a julho (1,0% em relação a agosto de 2024), após três meses consecutivos de contração.       O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     1.   Comércio varejista brasileiro segue em tendência de arrefecimento   COMMODITIES:     1. Mineração e Siderurgia: Exportações chinesas se recuperam, mas riscos comerciais ressurgem; minério de ferro +2% S/S   EMPRESAS:     1. Embraer (EMBR3): Ambições de crescimento apoiadas pela força da engenharia e vendas 2. Brazil Telecom Resultados do 3T25 – Claro Brasil (AMX: não coberta) 3. Vivara (VIVA3): Prévia do 3T25 | Um brilho no trimestre 4.Guararapes (GUAR3): Prévia do 3T25 | Sentindo o Frio 5.Eletrobras (ELET3): Desinvestimento da Eletronuclear Anunciado 6.Instituições financeiras: Crescimento Significativo em Meio a Ventos Contrários Macroeconômicos 7. Brasil Tech Prévia 3T25 – TOTVS (TOTS3), Intelbras (INTB3), LWSA (LWSA3) e Positivo (POSI3). RENDA FIXA:    1. De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa   ALOCAÇÃO & FUNDOS:  1. Fundos Imobiliários (FIIs): confira as principais notícias     ESTRATÉGIA: 1. Calendário de resultados do 3º trimestre de 2025 ESG:   1. Orizon (ORVR3): O que ouvimos da nossa conversa com a liderança  2. Leilão de baterias, produção de SAF pela PETR4 e desinvestimento da Eletronuclear pela ELET3 em destaque | Café com ESG, 16/10   Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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