Morning Call | Bolsas em queda, com atenção voltada para bancos regionais nos EUA

XP Research 17 de Outubro de 2025     Morning Call | Bolsas em queda, com atenção voltada para bancos regionais nos EUA   Nesta sexta-feira, a agenda econômica inclui a divulgação dos dados de produção industrial de setembro nos EUA     Ouça o áudio do Morning Call XP no Spreaker e Spotify   Ibovespa   O Ibovespa encerrou a quinta-feira em queda de 0,3%, aos 142.200 pontos. O destaque do dia foi a divulgação do IBC-Br de agosto, que veio abaixo das expectativas, reforçando a percepção de desaceleração da atividade econômica. Ao mesmo tempo, a ponta longa da curva de juros abriu, pressionando papéis cíclicos, enquanto o dólar recuou 0,3%, fechando a R$ 5,44.   A Weg subiu (WEGE3, +2,7%), após a companhia anunciar a aquisição de cerca de 54% do capital social da Tupinambá Energia por R$ 38 milhões. Na ponta negativa, Braskem (BRKM5, -6,7%) recuou, pressionada pela abertura da curva de juros e pelo rebaixamento de recomendação por um banco de investimentos.   Nesta sexta-feira, a agenda econômica inclui a divulgação dos dados de produção industrial de setembro nos EUA. Pela temporada internacional de resultados do 3T25, teremos American Express.   Renda Fixa   As taxas futuras de juros encerraram a sessão de quinta-feira com abertura ao longo da curva. No Brasil, o movimento foi impulsionado pela oferta de 21,3 milhões de títulos prefixados no leilão do Tesouro — volume bem acima das semanas anteriores — pressionando especialmente a ponta longa. O DI jan/26 encerrou em 14,9% (+0,3bps vs. pregão anterior); DI jan/27 em 14,03% (+0,2bps); DI jan/29 em 13,33% (+2,9bps); DI jan/31 em 13,6% (+5,9bps). Nos Estados Unidos, os yields das Treasuries recuaram após a liquidação de ações de bancos regionais, levando investidores buscaram proteção em ativos seguros, como ouro e títulos soberanos. Com isso, rendimentos das Treasuries de dois anos terminaram o dia em 3,41% (-8,39bps vs. pregão anterior), enquanto os de dez anos em 3,96% (-6,34bps).   Mercados globais   Nesta sexta-feira, os futuros nos EUA recuam (S&P 500: -1,1%; Nasdaq 100: -1,3%) com o aumento das preocupações em torno dos bancos regionais, após novas revelações sobre perdas em carteiras de crédito. O movimento segue a forte queda de quinta-feira, quando Zions e Western Alliance divulgaram empréstimos inadimplentes, ampliando o temor de práticas de crédito frouxas em meio às recentes falências de empresas ligadas à indústria automotiva. Investidores também seguem atentos à terceira semana do shutdown, que mantém suspensa a divulgação de dados econômicos. Entre as grandes companhias, Oracle recua 3,7% após revisar suas projeções de longo prazo, e Eli Lilly e Novo Nordisk caem após Donald Trump indicar que negocia cortes de preços em medicamentos para obesidade.   Na Europa, os mercados operam em queda (Stoxx 600: -1,5%), acompanhando a aversão a risco global e a pressão sobre o setor bancário. O índice europeu de bancos (Stoxx 600 Banks) recua -3%, refletindo o impacto do temor de crédito vindo dos EUA. Jefferies e UBS estão entre as instituições mais expostas à falência da americana First Brands, com riscos de US$ 715 milhões e US$ 500 milhões, respectivamente. O ex-presidente do BCE Jean-Claude Trichet afirmou que a situação exige cautela, mas não vê "enorme dificuldade iminente". No setor de defesa, o índice europeu recua 3,4% após o anúncio de uma reunião entre Donald Trump e Vladimir Putin na Hungria.   Na China, os mercados fecharam em queda (CSI 300: -2,3%; HSI: -2,5%), refletindo o aumento da aversão ao risco global. O Hang Seng Index registrou sua maior queda desde abril, pressionado por ações do setor educacional e pelo recuo das ações da BYD (-4%), que anunciou recall de 115 mil veículos por falhas de design e bateria. Na Coreia do Sul, o Kospi tocou nova máxima histórica intradiária antes de devolver os ganhos e fechar estável, sustentado pela continuidade das negociações comerciais com os EUA.   IFIX   O Índice de Fundos Imobiliários (IFIX) encerrou a quinta-feira em queda de 0,22%, acumulando perdas de 0,31% em outubro. Os FIIs de Papel foram o destaque negativo da sessão, com recuo médio de 0,28%, enquanto os FIIs de Tijolo registraram variação média de -0,13%. Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se GZIT11 (+2,0%), BCIA11 (+1,5%) e BROF11 (+0,9%). Por outro lado, as principais quedas ficaram com CCME11 (-1,5%), XPSF11 (-1,4%) e URPR11 (-1,4%).   Entre as maiores altas do dia, destacaram-se AIEC11 (1,0%), KISU1 (0,9%) e VRTM11 (0,9%). Já entre as principais quedas, figuraram TEPP11 (-2,2%), HGBS11 (-1,5%) e RBRP11 (-1,2%).   Economia   Os investidores global estão preocupados com as renovadas tensões entre os EUA e a China em relação a tarifas comerciais e com a saúde dos bancos regionais dos EUA. Ontem, dois bancos americanos, o Western Alliance Bank e o Zions Bank, divulgaram que foram expostos a supostas fraudes por parte de tomadores de empréstimo.   Na Zona do Euro, inflação ao consumidor acima da meta reforça que o ECB deve manter juros estáveis adiante. No Brasil, destaque para o encontro do Ministro das Relações Exteriores do Brasil, Mauro Vieira, e do Secretário de Estado dos EUA, Marco Rubio para tratar de comércio e outras questões. A reunião foi reportada como positiva, e os dois concordaram em agendar uma reunião entre os presidentes Lula e Trump o mais breve possível. Na economia, o IBC-Br (proxy mensal do PIB) confirmou a desaceleração da atividade.       O Morning Call XP também está no YouTube, com participação dos nossos especialistas, ao vivo. Clique aqui e assista à transmissão de hoje!   ECONOMIA:     Conversas positiva entre os governos dos EUA e do Brasil sobre comércio e outras questões bilaterais   EMPRESAS:     1.Conversas positiva entre os governos dos EUA e do Brasil sobre comércio e outras questões bilaterais 2.Azzas 2154 (AZZA3): Prévia do 3T25 | Ainda ajustando a operação 3.WEG (WEGE3): Carregando o grid 4.M. Dias Branco (MDIA3) | Prévia dos resultados do 3T25: Elevando as estimativas, mas permanecendo neutro 5.Boa Safra (SOJA3) | Prévia de resultados do 3T25: Trimestre forte, embora já precificado RENDA FIXA:    De Olho na Renda Fixa: principais notícias de crédito privado, mercados e renda fixa     Clique aqui para acessar o relatório completo Disclaimer 1) This report was prepared by XP Investimentos CCTVM S.A. 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